Projecting the Red Sox Stats After 54 Games

The Boston Red Sox are through one third of their season with a record of 30-24 and have are tied with the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East.  It is no surprise the Red Sox are in first place with the roster they have assembled but it is a surprise in the respect that they got off to such a horrid start at 2-10.  They are currently missing 40% of their starting rotation, have been without their full complement of pitchers out of the bullpen, got no production out of Carl Crawford in the month of April, and Dustin Pedroia hasn’t been his usual self.  With all that being said they still are in first place and I guess that is all that really matters.

Most of you that read this blog know that I really enjoy making predictions.  Most of you also know that I am often wrong with my predictions.  But I like to give it a shot anyways.  Below are my statistical projections for the Red Sox for the 2011 season.  I will update this post after the 108th game of the season as that will amount to two thirds of the season.  Feel free to play the over/under game in the comments section.

Player                            Batting Average    Home Runs        RBIS                Stolen Bases

Jacoby Ellsbury                 .305                           18                   80                         57

Dustin Pedroia                   .275                           12                    54                         30

Adrian Gonzalez                .320                           35                   138                       1

Kevin Youkilis                    .280                           24                    105                      2

David Ortiz                          .290                           30                    100                     1

Carl Crawford                      .277                           12                      63                      35

Jed Lowrie                             .300                         15                       60                     2

Jarrod Saltalamacchia      .250                          12                       45                      0

JD Drew                                 .245                          11                       40                     2

Jason Varitek                        .215                         4                          25                    0

Mike Cameron                       .220                          5                         20                    2

Pitcher                       Wins                     Loss                     ERA                K

Jon Lester                         21                            7                           3.50                297

Josh Beckett                      18                          6                           3.25                189

Clay Buchholz                  14                            8                           3.45                182

John Lackey                      10                          10                           4.75                110

Alfredo Aceves                    7                             3                           4.15                   80

Tim Wakefield                    6                             5                           4.35                   48

Jonathan Papelbon   Saves- 30   ERA- 2.50   K’s- 90


These projections were not founded upon anything with any scientific formula or Bill James-esque crap.  It was just a mini game I liked to play and to see how close I come at the end of the season.  Feel free to bash me or praise me in the comments section or as I mentioned before play the over/under game.  I only projected the stats of players that will have significant value on the team.  Bullpen stats are extremely difficult to project so I just stuck with figuring out Papelbon.

I can be followed on Twitter @ ScottieNTCF



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