Red Sox Hit First Rough Patch of 2013

The Red Sox were not going to play .720 baseball all season long.  For the first time in the 2013 season, the Red Sox have hit on hard times.  The injury bug has stung the back-end of the bullpen.  They have not been able to hit with runners in scoring position.  These have been the two main factors in the Red Sox going an abysmal 4-9 since the last time I wrote on this very site.

Joel Hanrahan is done for the season after experiencing tightness in his forearm.  He will undergo season ending surgery at some point in the near future.  Andrew Bailey has also been out with arm trouble.  An anticipated strength coming into the 2013 season is now a massive question mark.  John Farrell has named Junichi Tazawa as interim closer, until Bailey comes off the disabled list.  The only other candidate was Koji Uehara.

Having Hanrahan down for the count and Bailey on and off the disabled list is frustrating for Red Sox fans.  The Red Sox traded Josh Reddick for Andrew Bailey last offseason.  That trade has been one-sided to say the least.  Reddick launched 32 home runs last season and shockingly won a Gold Glove last season.  Yes, he is off to a slow start this season.  By comparison, Andrew Bailey has appeared in just 32 games for the Sox.  Joel Hanrahan was traded to the Red Sox this past off-season with Brock Holt for Mark Melancon, Jerry Sands, Ivan DeJesus, and Stolmy Pimental.  All I need to tell you about this trade? At the time of this writing, Mark Melancon has a 0.47 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP in 19 innings.  Hanrahan likely ends his Red Sox career with an 0-1 record and a 9.82 ERA in 7.1 innings.

My outside the box cure for the Red Sox closing woes?  Move Ryan Dempster to closer.  Bring up Alan Webster and put him in the rotation.  Dempster has had success as a closer before.  He also features two pitches you want your closer to have; a slider and a split finger fastball.  This keeps Uehara and Tazawa in their 7th and 8th inning roles, allows Webster on to the major league roster, and is insurance for the man made of glass, Andrew Bailey.

I blame the lack of offense of late right at the top.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s on base percentage is .311.  I am not looking for Ellsbury to repeat his 2010 video game numbers.  I am not asking Ellsbury to hit over .300, steal 70 bases, or even hit 10 home runs.  I am just asking him to get on base.  What good is a dynamic player like Ellsbury if he can’t get on base?  Too often this season Ellsbury has led off the game either swinging early in the count and popping up to the shortstop or second baseman; or swinging at a bad pitch with a 3 ball count.  It’s truly maddening.  Ellsbury needs to do a better job of getting on base.  The Red Sox have an exciting lineup that has been dull due to Ellsbury incompetence at the plate.  They will go as he goes.  Right now, he is going nowhere.

On a side note, Stephen Drew is hitting .228.  In my last post I guaranteed he would be at .230 the next time I sat at this laptop.  Way to do me proud, Mr. Drew.  The bold prediction this time around?  Dustin Pedroia currently has 1 home run on the season.  He will hit 5 more between now and June 3.

The Red Sox now play 20 days in a row against sub par teams.  (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and New York.) I believe this stretch will be a true test to see what we have going into the summer.  I am hoping to see a resilient team that can shake off this bad stretch and get back in the win column.  I really believed they were the antithesis of last season’s disaster.  These next 20 days will show an awful lot about the 2013 Red Sox.

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

The Boston Red Sox are the Best Team in Baseball

Go ahead Red Sox fans: Let that headline sink in.  Enjoy it.  Cherish it. Be proud of the home town team.  If  the last few seasons have pushed you away from the club, it is safe to come back now.  This team is a complete “180″ of the 25 individuals from seasons past.  With one game remaining in April, the Red Sox are 18-7.  That is .720 ball, on pace for 117 wins.  Better than the winning? This team has to be the most likable team of any sport I can remember.

Since I last wrote, the city of Boston underwent the most traumatic week a city could possibly endure. During tragic events, like the Boston Marathon bombing, cities generally gravitate toward their sports teams for a sense of comfort or hope.  It happened after 9/11 and it happened in Boston.  The Red Sox embraced this role.  Guys like Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino were quick to tweet out their support and love for Boston.  Dustin Pedroia paid visited the victims at the hospitals.  Probably most memorable was Big Papi’s quote when he addressed the crowd at Fenway Park the Saturday after that scum was apprehended.  ”This is our F****** city!” (And to all the people upset about Papi’s language, grow up.  It was said with unparalleled emotion and it built pride in every single person that lives in that city. It needed to be said.) Best of all, the Red Sox came from behind to beat the Kansas City Royals behind Daniel Nava’s 8th inning three run blast into the bullpen.  What an amazing day that was!

The success the Red Sox have had can be attributed to the starting pitching.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have been outstanding this month.  Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He has to be the early leader in the American League Cy Young debate after 1 month.  Not far behind him in that race is Lester.  Lester is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA.  The lesson learned here?  John Farrell was a great decision to lead this ball club.  Amazing what happens when the general manager gets to his job, huh Larry?

With Joel Hanrahan due to come off the disabled list, it will be interesting to see if Farrell sticks with Andrew Bailey, or goes back to Hanrahan.  Bailey has been very good in the closers role with Hanrahan out.  I do not have a strong preference toward either guy.  I think they both can do the job.  What excites me is the potential to shorten the game with this bullpen.  The Japanese duo has erased the sour Japanese taste out of my mouth Daisuke Matsuzaka left behind.  Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara have been electric in the middle innings.  Clayton Mortensen has been more than serviceable as a long man. If Andrew Miller ever learned o throw strikes, I might like him too.

David Ortiz has silenced his critics early.  Remember how upset everyone was that he was not ready for Opening Day?  Remember how upset everyone was when the Red Sox signed him to a multi-year deal this offseason?  Well, through 8 games Big Papi has said “shut the hell up” to his critics.  Ortiz is hitting .516 with 11 runs batted in and 2 home runs.  The lineup of Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, and Middlebrooks could be a potential murderer’s row.  Napoli has been outstanding as a run producer.  He set the franchise record for most RBIs in April with 27.  He is currently averaging a little over 1 RBI a game!  If Ellsbury and Victorino can get on base for these guys, watch out.

Lastly, I understand Red Sox fans are upset with Stephen Drew.  Most people are upset with him because of his genes.  Others have a more valid reason to be upset.  Drew is currently hitting .146.  Yes, that is atrocious. In an effort to be positive on all accounts, I am going to ask the masses to silence their criticisms of Drew.  I am going to go out on a limb and say he will get the average up to about .230 by the next time I write about the Red Sox.  I am doing my best to write on their off days.  So Stephen Drew has until May 13 to make me look like a genius.

Get behind these guys! They have the pitching.  They have the defense.  They are playing with great energy.  They are everything they haven’t been the past 3 seasons.

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

The Red Sox are Fun Again!

Baseball fans outside of the New England area are having a field day making fun of irrational Red Sox fans one week into the season.  After starting the 2013 season with a 5-2 record, fans are talking about winning the franchise’s third World Series in 10 years.  Maybe that is taking it a touch to far.  The point being; After 2 years of miserable baseball, the Boston Red Sox are back and now relevant in New England again.  It is no secret the Red Sox have been throughly unlikable the past 2 seasons.  Even during the stretch of 2011 when “The Greatest Baseball Team Ever” was playing like it, they were behind boring.  If anything the 2013 version of the Boston Red Sox is the antithesis of the past two years.  In one week, the Red Sox played with more emotion and fire than they had in all of the last two seasons combined.

Many in Boston are wondering if what the Red Sox are doing is sustainable.  Can they continue to play well over the course of a 162 game season and contend for a playoff spot?  There are bound to be peaks and valleys over such a long stretch of time.  A 5-2 record is playing .714 baseball.  They certainly will not win at this pace all season long.

The most promising aspect of the Red Sox hot start has been the pitching and defense.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are pitching like the 1 and 1A Red Sox fans believe they are.  Lester is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA.  Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA.  Whether it’s the absence of Josh Beckett or the presence of John Farrell, I do not know, but these guys have been lights out.  The bullpen has also been effective and are in the discussion for best bullpen in baseball.  Andrew Bailey has been dominant in his 8th inning role.  Joel Hanrahan has been able to shut the door in every game he has appeared in featuring his 99 MPH fastball.  Jonathan who?  And how about the defense?  Through 7 games, ZERO errors.

The unsung guys have been contributing in a big way.  Jose Iglesias is batting .450.  (Speaking of things that won’t last).  Daniel Nava hit a game winning home run from the right side of the plate against the Orioles.  David Ross has made it clear nobody will steal any bases under his watch.  Will “Misslebrooks” launched three rockets out of the Rogers Centre.

Honesty what is there not to like about this team?  After two seasons of watching boring, unlikable, prima donnas this current team is a breath of fresh air.  The Red Sox have 19 straight games before their next scheduled off day. It is my hope I will be able to report back to you with even more positive feedback at that time.  As it stands at the time of this writing, the Red Sox are 5-2, 2 games ahead of the Orioles, Yankees, and Rays in sole possession of first place.

 

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

The Beginning of the Jackie Bradley, Jr. Legend

Tomorrow, the Boston Red Sox will open their 2013 season in the Bronx against their arch rival, the New York Yankees.   News broke today 22 year old Jackie Bradley, Jr. made the Opening Day roster after an amazing Spring Training.  For the past two months there has been much debate on sports radio, in the newspapers, and all over the blogosphere about whether to promote Bradley, Jr. to the big show or start out the season in Pawtucket.  Because of the way Major League Baseball contracts are structured, Bradley, Jr. making the team is significant for the next 6 years.  Bradley, Jr. will need to spend at least 20 days in Pawtucket at some point during this season to ensure he is still under Red Sox control in 2018.

I am completely in favor of Bradley, Jr. making the Opening Day roster.  It is not because he gives the Red Sox the obvious public relations boost the organization sorely needs.  I am in favor of Bradley, Jr making the team because he was 1 of the best 25 guys in camp.  Bradley, Jr. deserved to make this roster.  If the Sox had of kept him in the minor leagues just to ensure they keep him under team control an extra year, it would send a terrible message to the players in the organization.  I don’t condone the idea of essentially punishing someone that busted their behind all spring by sending them to the minors.

Bradley, Jr. is expected to start in left field.  Jonny Gomes will be the team’s designated hitter until David Ortiz is ready to come off the disabled list.  Things will get rather interesting when Ortiz does come back.  Does Bradley, Jr. stay in Boston? That question will not be answered for a few weeks.  Until that time, we as Red Sox fans should enjoy the ride with Jackie Bradley, Jr.  He is going to energize the lineup.  Also, the outfield of Bradley, Jr., Ellsbury, and Victorino has to be the best defensive outfield in baseball.  The three of them will cover ground like no other trio in the history of baseball.

Jackie Bradley, Jr. has been compared to Derek Jeter when it comes to his character by Buster Olney.  As a Red Sox fan, I can’t help but be excited about this kid’s potential.  Over the past two seasons, I have been an extremely bitter Red Sox fan.  My disdain for Larry Luchhino knows no bounds.  The epic September collapse in 2011 coupled with the Bobby Valentine era has caused steam to burst out of my ears.  But now I actually come into 2013 with tempered optimism.  I do not expect the Red Sox to make the playoffs in 2013.  But I do think I will embrace watching a team that appears to enjoy playing the game of baseball.  I look forward to seeing the development of Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Here’s to the 2013 Red Sox!

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

The Boston Red Sox Culture Change

One week has gone by since the Boston Red Sox started building their 2013 roster.  Their first big move was signing Mike Napoli
to a 3 year $39 million deal.  Two days later, they signed Shane Victorino to the exact same contract.  Many Red Sox fans have been upset with these deals.  Napoli is coming of a year in which he hit .227 with 24 home runs and 56 RBI.  Victorino is coming of a season in which he hit .251 with 11 home runs and 55 RBI.  Neither of these signings are what one would call “sexy.”

The Boston Red Sox aren’t currently in a position to make the “sexy” signings they once made.  The Red Sox desperately need to reinvent their brand and win back their fan base.  The idea behind the signings of Napoli and Victorino center more around what they will do for the clubhouse rather than on the field.  Coming off of the second straight disappointing season, the Red Sox need to change the culture of their clubhouse.  The dominos started to fall in August when they dumped Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett on the Dodgers for a few prospects.  Not only did they get rid of a fortune in salary, they got rid of a diva in Adrian Gonzalez, the perennially grumpy Josh Beckett, and a lost Carl Crawford.

I will be the first to admit, I wasn’t thrilled when the Red Sox signed Victorino.  His stats are clearly on the decline over the last three years.  I then followed the Flyin’ Hawaiian on Twitter and in a short time it became painfully apparent to me that Victorino WANTS to play in Boston.  After dealing with the surly Beckett the past few years, I found this refreshing that someone was genuinely excited to play baseball for the Red Sox.  The past two years the Red Sox have dealt with the chicken and beer fiasco followed by the Bobby Valentine disaster.  I think it will be nice to have coverage of guys having fun playing the game.

Johnny Gomes falls into the category of someone who will help pick up the clubhouse atmosphere.  He may be limited defensively and unable to hit right-handed pitching but he mashes lefties and will remind Red Sox fans of Kevin Millar.  Gomes was a spirited leader on an Oakland team that made an improbable run to the playoffs winning the AL West on the last day of the season in 2012.   There was nothing about the 2012 Oakland Athletics roster that on paper wowed anyone.  I am hopeful the same thing will happen with the 2013 Red Sox.

Last season, I remember asking myself if I was willing for the Red Sox to completely start over in hopes of righting the sinking ship.  Going into 2013, the Red Sox are sure to be in the basement of the AL East in everyone’s preseason rankings.  I think I am ok with that.  I can’t deal with the disappointment the Red Sox were the past 2 years.  I rather they rebuild and get on track toward being a World Series contender again.  The signings they have made so far have done nothing to stop that process.  The Victorino signing allows roster flexibility and buys time for top prospects Jackie Bradley and Bryce Brentz to develop in the minor leagues.  Mike Napoli will be a power bat in the Red Sox lineup that will hit 30 home runs easily if he is able to remain healthy.  He absolutely rakes at Fenway. The other plus? The Red Sox don’t have to face him for 3 years.

The Red Sox will next have to look at what to do with their pitching rotation.  There are two spots to be filled behind Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and (gulp) John Lackey.  The Red Sox could potentially pony up big money for Anibal Sanchez or could make lesser moves in going after Kyle Lohse or Ryan Dempster.  Otherwise, their in-house options are Franklin Morales and Alfredo Aceves.

The off-season has just begun and I am sure the Red Sox are far from done building their 2013 roster.  The Red Sox brass has assured its fan base at least one thing.  There will be a drastic culture change in the clubhouse come April.

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

2012 Boston Red Sox Offseason Blueprint

The Boston Red Sox went 69-93 in the 2012 season.  Their worst record since 1965.  Like most Red Sox fans, I was miserable all summer.  In fact, I was miserable since late November, when the Red Sox brass inexplicably decided to hire the worst man possible for the job in Bobby Valentine.  This wasn’t just hindsight being 20/20. If you comb our archives, there is a post I wrote on November 4, 2011 titled “The Search for a Manager” after Terry Francona left Boston. The basic gist of that post was making sure the Red Sox hired anyone but Bobby V.

11 months later, I am here at my laptop, and the Red Sox are again without a manager. A lot has changed in Boston though.  Adrian Gonzalez, who was supposed to remind us of Manny Ramirez, is out in LA along with Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett.  There are more holes in the lineup card that accompany the vacancy on the top step of the dugout.  Will they give David Ortiz the contract he wants? Will they re-sign Cody Ross?  Are they going to go into an all out youth movement?  Will they explore trading Jacoby Ellsbury?

The manager search doesn’t really concern me much because Bobby V is no longer available.  Dave Martinez, Sandy Alomar, and Bill Mueller are all guys that I would really like to see manage the Sox.  John Farrell and Mike Scioscia will either have to get fired or the Red Sox would have to trade for them. I can’t really think of any candidates that I absolutely don’t want like Bobby V last season.  I trust that the franchise is okay this time around with whomever they decide to hire.

Midway through the 2012 season, I started to think the Red Sox should give David Ortiz a Kevin Garnett like contract.  3 years $30 million would shut Ortiz up for a while, it would allow him to retire a Red Sox, and at the time he was performing at a high enough level to warrant that type of offer.  Then he injured his Achilles running the bases and was essentially out for the season.  This injury changed my mindset on Ortiz.  He is only asked to DH and he can’t stay on the field.  I would offer him a 2 year deal for $18 million.  I only offer him the multi-year deal because of what he has meant to the Red Sox organization the last 10 years.  The Red Sox are wise enough to know there isn’t much of a market for Ortiz being jus a DH.  The fact that he wasn’t able to play a whole season also plays into the Red Sox favor when they sit down at the contract table.

If Ortiz digs his heels in and proves difficult to re-sign, the Red Sox do have fall back options.  There have been numerous reports out of Arizona that GM Kevin Towers will explore the trade market for Justin Upton.  The 2005 first overall pick is just 25 years old.  He is a five tool player.  Put Upton in right field. This would allow you to move Cody Ross to left once you re-sign him, or he could even become your DH.  Because Upton is just 25 years old I feel its ok to give up your prospects.  Upton would be a part of the youth movement.  In my eyes only Matt Barnes is your truly untouchable prospect.  Go ahead and trade Xander Bogearts, Jackie Bradley, Allen Webster, and Bryce Brentz.  I believe the return you are getting here is much more valuable than question marks that are in the farm system.

It was no secret the Red Sox pitching this season was terrible at best.  The staff ERA was over 5.  In fact the staff was so bad, there were people actually excited that John Lackey was coming back next season.  As it stands right now the Red Sox will head into Spring Training with a rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, and Franklin Morales.  The nice thing about that last sentence is it didn’t include the name Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Daniel Bard will have the entire winter to get over his mental breakdown in 2012.  It is my hope that whoever manages the Red Sox will keep Bard in the 8th inning to set up Andrew Bailey where he belongs.  Morales will be in the rotation depending on the development of Rubby De La Rosa.

Zack Grenike is available in free agency and the Red Sox should avoid him like the plague.  Greinke’s mental health issues are well documented and we have seen many players come through Boston and show they could not handle the environment.  Imagine what will happen to Grenike?  The only free agent pitcher that genuinely interests me would be Dan Haren but I fear his price tag will be a bit exorbitant.  As far as trade targets, a guy I have wanted for years might be available in Matt Garza.  Garza proved when he was with the Rays that he can pitch in the toughest division in baseball.  Garza is just 28, so he might command a similar package to that which would be required to land Justin Upton. The other interesting trade target is Josh Johnson.  My problem with him, however, is the man just can’t stay healthy.  I have real reservations sending away top prospects for someone who isn’t reliable.

While there is a part of me to see Adrian Gonzalez gone, I have to be realistic and acknowledge his departure leaves a rather large hole in the lineup and at first base. James Loney came to Boston as a part of the AGone deal and in 30 games he just .230. with 2 home runs and 8 RBI.  His best season was in 2008 when he hit .289 with 13 home runs and 90 RBI.  There isn’t much else out there in the first baseman market.  I am not excited about James Loney coming back to Boston, but I think the Red Sox can get him back dirt cheap and he will be serviceable for them.  I’d say sign Mike Napoli to play first base just so the Sox don’t have to oppose him any longer but that theory proved wrong with Carl Crawford. He also suffered a major regression the second half of the season. The other options are Adam LaRoche (who will be overpaid by someone this winter) and Nick Swisher. Truth be told, I would love to see Swisher in a Red Sox uniform but I know that won’t happen.

I hope the Red Sox don’t get involved in the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes.  I don’t care about his history and all that jazz.  I am more concerned about paying someone top dollar from the ages of 35 and on.  Alex Rodriguez is a prime example of why not to give massive contracts to athletes in the twilight of their careers.  Hamilton will turn 32 next season and he figures to command at least an 8 year contract in the neighborhood of $175 million.

Lastly, the Red Sox will need to figure out what they want to do at shortstop.  I would like to see them give Jose Iglesias the nod in 2013.  I can probably hit better than him but his defense is outstanding.  I believe in run prevention and Iglesias in my opinion could help out that starting rotation quite a bit.  He gets to balls that he has no business getting to.  I’ll tolerate the .200 batting average if it means outstanding defense.  Bat him ninth, let him sacrifice bunt whenever he can, and let him learn how to hit big league pitching on the job.  There is no one really available via free agency either.

I expect this offseason to be interesting for the Red Sox.  I am hoping management is just as sick of losing as the fan base is.  I miss the days of 2004 and 2007.  The Red Sox have not made the playoffs since 2009 and in that year they were swept by the Angels.  I sincerely hope that the Boston Red Sox are at rock bottom right now because I can’t imagine it being any worse.

I can be followed on Twitter @ ScottieNTCF

Trade Jacoby? Whattya Nuts?

I am in dire need of a rant.  So I come back to the NTCF blog once again to explode.

Who started this whole idea that the Boston Red Sox have to trade Jacoby Ellsbury?  Over the past two weeks I have heard both radio stations (WEEI and 98.5) talk about the need for the Red Sox to trade one of the cornerstones of the organization.  Tony Mazz who I really enjoy and respect as one of the best baseball men in the business has started this insane thought and somehow the snowball has rolled down a mountain gathering momentum into an avalanche of epic proportions.

The fear is that Ellsbury will walk at the end of this contract which expires after the 2013 season.  The fear is that he will demand a contract in the neighborhood of 7 years for $200 million.  The fear is that Scott Boras is his agent.  I will tackle these points one at a time.

Even if Jacoby walks after 2013, why not let him play out his current contract and reap the benefits of having an MVP caliber player on your team? As a reminder, Ellsbury put up video game numbers last season. He hit .321 with 32 home runs, 105 RBI, and 52 stolen bases.  Oh, and he also won the Gold Glove award.  Why give any of that up?

Are the Boston Red Sox worried about shelling amount ridiculous money for someone? Spare me.  The Red Sox make money hand over fist.  It is as if they have their own money tree.  Ellsbury contributes to that revenue! All the pink hats love Jacoby.  Ladies love Jacoby for than they love Cool J.  Ellsbury sells more pink hats and shirts than anyone on that roster.  The least they could do is reward him for that from a business standpoint!

Scott Boras is a tough agent to deal with.  But haven’t a fair number of his clients ended up signing with Boston anyway?  (See Drew, JD, Varitek, Jason, Matsuzaka, Daisuke).  Boras was even behind getting Alex Rodriguez to Boston back in 2004.  He even fought the Players Union to keep A-Rod in Boston.  My point being that the Red Sox have dealt with Boras in the past.  There is no reason to shy away from a super star player and money maker because of his agent.

People give Ellsbury a bad rap because of his injury history.  Heck, I was once of them.  But both of his injuries were actual injuries.  He collided with Adrian Beltre in 2010, breaking a few ribs.  Let me rephrase that.  He collided with a high speed Amtrak train and only broke a few ribs.  In 2012, 6’3 190 pound Reid Brignac landed on Ellsbury’s shoulder as he went in hard to break up a double play.  Ellsbury ended up separating his shoulder and missed 3 months of the 2012 season.

In the three seasons Ellsbury played where there weren’t any types of collisions, he played 145, 153, and 158 games.  When he is not on the diamond, it is not reminiscent of JD Drew.  He doesn’t sit out games because he has a tight hammy, a stiff back, or because he has cramps and the Midol isn’t helping.

It would make zero sense for the Red Sox to trade or let go of Jacoby Ellsbury.  There is no player in baseball history that has his skill set.  Yes, I think he is better than Rickey Henderson.  He plays Gold Glove defense, runs like Usain Bolt, hits north of .300, and can hit 30 dingers.

It shouldn’t even come up as a suggestion to trade Jacoby.  It shouldn’t even be a funny joke. If you want to move Jacoby Ellsbury out of Boston, go get your head examined.

 

I can be followed on Twitter @ScottieNTCF

I Believe Again

After last year’s September collapse, the firing of Terry Francona, the subsequent hiring of Bobby Valentine, and the less than auspicious start to the 2012 season, I fully admit I was a raging pessimist as it pertained to the Boston Red Sox.  I was the real life version of Randy Quaid’s character from Major League. (Did that guy have an actual name?)   I grew to actually hate the team that I loved ever since I had the ability to understand baseball.

Now, something has happened.  It may be the Father’s Day Weekend I spent with my father at Wrigley Field, seeing the Saturday night game in which the Sox beat the Cubs 4-3.  Maybe it was in getting back to my roots that I remembered that a fan is supportive of their team no matter the situation, as difficult as it may be.  Maybe I realized that this team has actually overachieved, contrary to the court of public opinion.  I just thought this, and this is crazy, but maybe Buster Olney saved the Red Sox 2012 season…(call me maybe?).

Let’s take a look at the facts.  Jacoby Ellsbury, the 2011 AL MVP runner up, has played in just 7 games for the Red Sox.  Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey haven’t appeared in a game all season.  Kevin Youkilis has missed several games this season with nagging injuries, and hasn’t produced like the Youk of old.  Adrian Gonzalez isn’t earning his paycheck statistically but has “taken one for the team” by moving out to right field for close to 20 games so far. Sure the Red Sox are in last place, but they are above .500, 8 games behind the red hot Yankees, and 4 back of a wild card spot.

With the lack of production from big named players not named Ortiz, the Red Sox have managed to stay afloat in the pennant race while slowly getting healthy again.  Cody Ross and Ryan Kalish have come back from injury the past two days and paid immediate dividends, Kalish with the game winning hit on Sunday and Ross with a home run already tonight.  That is what makes this team fun.  The key contributors have been guys like Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks, Felix Doubront, Scott Podsednik, and Mike Aviles.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach have been the best catching duo in the league.

ESPN says the Red Sox have a 28.1% chance of making the playoffs.  I don’t know what scientific formula they have to measure that but I believe that is a rather harsh estimate.  The Red Sox have yet to play their best ball and I believe they have overachieved.  I don’t expect Adrian Gonzalez to hit .260 all year and I expect him to surpass his projection of 12 home runs for the season.  I am excited to see what Jacoby Ellsbury and a motivated Carl Crawford are going to do for this lineup.

The Red Sox are only 1/3 of the way through the season.  Cliche warning: The Major League Baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint.  I am starting to believe that the players are going to take exception to Buster Olney’s column calling the Red Sox clubhouse “toxic.”I believe that column will promote an “Us vs. The World” mentality. The Red Sox haven’t come close to playing their best ball this season.  I think the Orioles will soon come back to Earth. The Blue Jays just had a rash of devastating injuries to their rotation, losing Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek for some time.  That leaves the Red Sox dealing with the Yankees, Rays, Rangers, and Angels to compete with for a playoff spot.

Truth be told, Bobby Valentine has grown on me the last 3 months.  Before he came to Boston, I wrote on this very blog after Tito’s firing, that I would accept any one as the new manager not named Bobby Valentine.  Now I have come to appreciate Bobby V.  I appreciate his candid rancor.  My only wish is that he wouldn’t act like he has been castrated by the ownership group.  Other than that I believe in this team.  I believe in Bobby V.  There is too much talent here to waste 2 years in a row.  And I know this team wants to shove it in all the naysayers faces.

That is my belief.  What fandom is built upon.  And I believe this team will do great things when it is all said and done.

I CAN BE FOLLOWED ON TWITTER @ SCOTTIENTCF

Mumbles Therapy

Today is only Wednesday and it has already been one of the longest weeks I’ve ever experienced.  The best therapy is for me to just rant about subject matter that I feel I know best: the world of sports.  Beware here comes a slew of unorganized thoughts better classified as Mumbles.

*Chris Paul will be traded before Christmas 2011.  New Orleans does not want to go through the “Melodrama” the Nuggets went through last year.  With all the leaks about the Celtics wanting Paul, it would be in their best interest to acquire the best point guard in the league by any means necessary.  The Celtics current point guard Rajon Rondo is very talented but is beyond emotionally fragile.  He broke down last year when his BFF Kendrick Perkins was traded.  He broke down when he was “dissed” by President Obama.  Now the Celtics are reportedly (by every media outlet) pursuing Paul.  If the Celtics fail at acquiring Paul, they will be in for a very long and very uncomfortable season with Rondo running the show.  Get Paul now, worry about his contract status later.

*The Miami Marlins (have to get use to saying that) have been the biggest players in baseball free agency thus far.  They landed Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle.  They are also in hot pursuit of Albert Pujols.  While this appears to be great news for South Florida, they have alienated their franchise player in Hanley Ramirez.  HanRam has reportedly asked for a trade because does not want to move to third base for Reyes.  If I am the Red Sox, I make a strong play at reacquiring the troubled shortstop.  He comes with baggage. There is no doubt about it.  But at the end of the day he is 27 years old coming off his worst season but entering his prime.  He is under contract until 2014 at a reasonable price (3 years $46 mil left).  He is a clear upgrade over Marco Scutaro or Jed Lowrie.  If I am Ben Cherrington, I offer Lowrie or Scutaro, Xander Bogaerts or Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick, and Matt Barnes or Anthony Ranuaudo.  Imagine this lineup:

Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzalez, HRamirez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Saltalamacchia, Kalish/Reddick.

*The Boston Bruins benched Tyler Seguin last night during a 15 game unbeaten streak due to him missing a team breakfast in Winnipeg.  Now, I may be in the minority but I love that they benched the 19 year old leading scorer.  Nipping any antics that Seguin may be a part of in the bud is essential in his early development.  It’s clear to me that his benching has a lot more to it then missing his team breakfast.  His excuse will also go down as the worst excuse in sports history.  ”My clock was set on Boston time and not Winnipeg time.” Tyler may need a geography/time zone lesson to go along with that benching.  What we all need to remember is that the kid is 19 and he hasn’t had a chance to experience the night life like we all did in college.  I cut him some slack but at the same time applaud the management and coaching decision to discipline him.

* I once hated Tim Tebow with a unparraleled passion.  I think that was because I was an ignorant Longhorns fan that would hear nothing other than Colt McCoy was the best there was.  (In my defense he is the all time winningest quarterback in NCAA history). But after the last two months, how do you not love Tebow? Yes, the whole God squad thing can deter someone but as an athlete? The guy has “it.” Whatever “it” may be Tebow has it.  He wins football games and is exciting to watch.  Yes, I am all aboard the Tebow wagon!

*Unfortunately I don’t have any thoughts on the Patriots.  To me they are the most vanilla franchise in Boston sports.  It may be a reflection of the coach.  They win ball games and move on to the next opponent.  Until the playoffs, there is nothing I can really say about them.

*I love Ed Cooley.  When Providence College first hired him, I was skeptical at best.  My hatred of Keno Davis and his thug culture may have angered me to the point I was blind.  But there truly was no better person to hire for this position then who they landed.  Cooley has demonstrated a willingness to play defense (unthinkable during Keno’s time) and also to discipline players when needed.  (Kadeem Batts is yet to play a game.  Expected back for the URI game 12-23).  I have gone to as many games as I’ve could and have appreciated the development of Bryce Cotton.  I like that Vincent Council is playing under control.  I like that Cooley has Coleman playing defense.  I understand that the Friars may get smoked once the Big East schedule starts.  But I expected that coming into the season.  But because of Cooley, I now know they will play hard for 40 minutes every night.

*I can be followed on Twitter @ ScottieNTCF

Papel-Gone

Today, the Philadelphia Phillies and Jonathan Papelbon officially reached an agreement that would put Papelbon in a Phillies
uniform for the next 4 seasons to the tune of $50 million.  Papelbon was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 4th round of the 2003 draft and came up through the farm system, first landing in Boston in 2005.  He was the Red Sox closer from 2006-2011 and helped bring one World Series title to Boston in 2007.  In seven professional seasons, Papelbon has a 23-19 record, 2.33 ERA, and 219 saves.  He was a four-time All Star as well.

With his departure, the Red Sox are left without someone to close the door in the ninth inning.  Papelbon was a model of consistency for the most part coming out of the bullpen.  For a time, I referred to him as the next Mo. (Mariano Rivera).  For a time, whenever the Dropkick Murphy’s amplified throughout Fenway Park, there was a sense of confidence that the game was over because Papelbon was coming in to shut the door.  He was usually dependable to get the last 3 outs of a game, 3 outs that most baseball pundits say are the toughest outs of any ball game.  Boston fans should be grateful for the time Papelbon gave the organization but they shouldn’t be overly upset that he is gone.

Jonathan Papelbon left Boston as fast as he possibly could.  In theory, he couldn’t wait for the end of the 2011 season to arrive so he could grab the first ticket out-of-town.  This can be inferred by the fact that he didn’t wait to see if Boston would match or trump Philly’s generous offer.  That he signed so early in the free agent period and didn’t wait for a market to be set for him, is a testament to the fact that he wanted out as soon as possible.

To be honest, it was time for Pap to take his talents elsewhere.  Personally, my lasting memories of Pap in a Red Sox uniform are not of him doing an Irish Jig with a Bud Light box on his head after the Red Sox clinched a playoff berth. My lasting memories of Pap are his blowing a 3 run lead in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS to the Angels.  My lasting memories of Pap are his blowing the Red Sox opportunity at making the playoffs in 2011 by getting lit up by the Orioles with 2 outs in the ninth inning.

In an effort to putting a Red Sox fan’s mind at ease, I will pose this question.  When was the last time a free agent closer, who demanded a big contract panned out for their signing team?  Francisco Rodriguez’s 3 year $37 million contract was a disaster with the Mets.  Brad Lidge signed a 3 year extension with the Phillies for the same $37 million that K-Rod signed with the Mets and other than 1 great year, his other 2 were riddled with injuries.  My point is that it’s generally not a good idea to pay a closer an exorbitant amount of money unless his name is Mariano. While some may argue that the closer is one of the most important parts of a team, I counter that they are getting paid to essentially get three outs.  At the end of the day three outs is three outs.  Three outs in the 1st inning is the same as 3 outs in 5th inning is the same as getting 3 outs in the ninth inning.  I do not buy into the theory that closers should be paid more than $10 million a year.

So now with Papelbon gone the Red Sox will need to replace him.  Their in-house options include Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks. Bard was excellent most of last year before hitting a rough patch in September.  Then again, who on the Red Sox didn’t have a bad September other than Marco Scutaro? Jenks is still under contract for next year but does have health concerns.  Kyle Weiland was quite effective last season his first time through an opponents lineup.  One could argue that he would be ideal for the closer’s role citing the theory that he shouldn’t have to go through a lineup to do his job.  Michael Bowden pitched well in Triple A Pawtucket last season.  In 52 innings he posted a 2.73 ERA with 16 saves.  Yet he has failed to impress at the Major League level.

Looking outside the organization the names that immediately spring to mind are Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, and Jonathan Broxton.  Bell and Madson would probably command the most money and we all know I am not a fan of throwing big money at closers.  Joe Nathan has been injury prone for the last 2 seasons and isn’t getting any younger at the age of 37.   Jonathan Broxton is a 300 pounder that put up a Lackey-like ERA of near 6 this past season with the Dodgers. While Cordero had a solid season in Cincinnati, he is 36 years old and not a viable option for a multi-year contract. Out of this group Capps is the most attractive.  He is 28, has a career ERA of 3.51, and gives up about a hit an inning (410 innings pitched/ 411 hits).  I would think the Red Sox would be able to get him for 3 years $25 million.  He might not be the sexiest option out there but he does his job.

Other names to kick around as potential Papelbon replacements: Francisco Rodriguez, Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and David Aardsma. Rodriguez has way too much baggage and is known as a drama queen in clubhouses from New York to Milwaukee.  Bringing him to Boston would be throwing gasoline on a fire.  Rauch is 6’10 and quite intimidating on the mound, but that’s about it.  Francisco is best known for throwing a bullpen chair into the stands during a brawl in Texas and Aardsma was in Boston before and wasn’t impressive in my humble opinion.

There is a part of me that will miss Papelbon coming into the game to the Shipping up to Boston song.  There is a part of me that will miss his stare into the catcher to get his sign.  I will miss the emotion that he brought to the game.  I will also miss how he was up front about his failures as much as his successes.  But all good things come to an end and for Jonathan Papelbon and the Boston Red Sox that time is now.

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