2013 New England Patriots Roster Breakdown – May Edition

In this post, I’m going to take a look at the potential 53 man roster for the New England Patriots for the upcoming 2013 season.  Obviously, it is May so many things will change between now and the beginning of the season.  However, if the season were to start today, this is how I see the roster shaking out.  For each position, I will list the players in order from starter to backup (i.e. 1) starter, 2) backup, etc.).  Let’s do it…

QUARTERBACK: 2 (2)

1)    Tom Brady

2)    Ryan Mallett

Analysis: This one is a no brainer.  Brady is the man, and no one in the league could compete for his position.  The thing to watch at quarterback for the Pats this offseason is the  performance of Ryan Mallett.  While some believe Mallett was drafted to be groomed as Brady’s potential replacement, I think Mallett was brought in 1) Because they saw great value when they selected him in the 3rd round in 2011 and 2) They saw him as a potential trade chip for a higher draft pick than he was originally selected.  If Mallett performs this preseason, he could get dealt to a team that has a big need at QB.

RUNNING BACK: 4 (4)

1)    Stevan Ridley

2)    Shane Vereen

3)    LeGarrette Blount

4)    Leon Washington

Analysis: Ridley earned the starting spot after his performance throughout the 2012 season, however some late season fumbling issues forced the Pats to bring in some insurance at the running back position (Blount) to at least compete with Ridley for the top spot.  Shane Vereen will pick up where Danny Woodhead left off, and will produce at a higher level than Woodhead did.  Ridley’s biggest area of improvement needs to be in pass protection, where Woodhead excelled.  Leon Washington is kept on as a return specialist/emergency/change of pace back.  Blount beats out Brandon Bolden for a spot on the roster and will look to be used in short yardage and goal line situations.

WIDE RECEIVER: 6 (5)

1) Aaron Dobson [outside]

1) Josh Boyce [outside]

1) Danny Amendola [slot]

2) Julian Edelman

2) Donald Jones

3) Matthew Slater

Analysis: This is by far the toughest position to predict the roster breakdown for on the 2013 Patriots.  With so much change that has occurred at the position, determining the direction that Pats will go is tough.  In my opinion, this is how the depth chart will stack up in September.  I think that Dobson and Boyce will both make a smooth transition and earn starting spots on the outside, while Amendola is already penciled in as the starting slot receiver.  Julian Edelman makes the team for two reasons: 1) Familiarity with the system and 2) Depth in the slot (although Boyce can play the slot as well.  The position battle to watch here will be between Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins, and newly signed Lavelle Hawkins.  I think Jenkins’ skill set has diminished to a point where he won’t produce on this team.  Hawkins had some issues with coachability and offensive knowledge in Tennessee, which is the recipe for being cut here in New England.  That leaves Jones, who has proven he can produce in the division and has good speed and size.  Slater isn’t going anywhere.  He is a lifer with the Pats.

TIGHT END: 4 (4)

1) Rob Gronkowski

1) Aaron Hernandez

2) Jake Ballard

3) Michael Hoomanawanui

Analysis: The top two spots here are set in stone for the next 5-6 years.  Gronkowski is still dealing with forearm issues, which now has me concerned that he will not be ready for the start of the season.  Here’s my prediction: Gronkowski starts the season on the PUP list in an effort to get that forearm back to 100% (and because they know they can afford to miss Gronk for 6 weeks).  With that said, the Pats are utilizing the two tight-end set more than any team in the NFL, so they are forced to carry 4 (at least) on their roster.  After Gronk and Hernandez, the next two spots are up for grabs.  The Pats made a great move and grabbed an injured Jake Ballard off of waivers from the Giants, and the greatness of that move will be realized this year.  Ballard is a mammoth of a human (6’6″, 275 lbs), but is as a good receiver (2011: 38 rec, 604 yards, 4 TDs) as he is blocker.  The Pats re-signed Hoomanawanui to a one-year, $1.323 million contract this offseason, so I think that gives him a leg up over Daniel Fells for the 4th tight end spot.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE: 4 (4)

1) Nate Solder [LT]

1) Sebastian Vollmer [RT]

2) Will Svitek

2) Marcus Cannon

Analysis: The top two spots here are filled by returning players in Solder and Vollmer.  After that, I see Svitek as a near lock to make the roster considering he is guaranteed to make at least $500,000 this season even if he is cut.  Svitek has the versatility to play both tackle positions and has been a good back-up for several years in the NFL, while also having started 16 games throughout his career.  Marcus Cannon will be the other backup tackle.  Cannon played decently in limited action last year, and should continue to develop this offseason.  Some believe the Pats will look to move Cannon inside to guard, which could shift the depth chart at tackle a bit.

OFFENSIVE GUARD: 3 (4)

1) Logan Mankins [LG]

1) Dan Connolly [RG]

2) Nick McDonald

Analysis: I see the Patriots only needing to keep 3 guards on the active roster for a couple of reasons: 1) McDonald has the versatility to play both guard positions and 2) Cannon can bump inside and play guard as well.  Mankins and Connolly are locks at both starting guard positions, while McDonald has been a good, versatile backup over the last couple of seasons.  Over his career, McDonald has lined up at all 5 offensive line spots, and worked a lot on playing center last offseason.  This is a great advantage for the Pats, considering that they usually only keep one center on the active roster (Connolly has also played center in the past).  Nick’s brother Chris will push him for a spot on the 53-man roster, however I think Chris makes his way onto the practice squad.

CENTER: 1 (1)

1) Ryan Wendell

Analysis: Not much analysis required here.  As mentioned previously, McDonald and Connolly have both played center in the past, so if Wendell happens to go down, the Pats have options.

DEFENSIVE END: 5 (6)

1) Chandler Jones [Right DE]

1) Rob Ninkovich [Left DE]

2) Jermaine Cunningham

2) Justin Francis

3) Jake Bequette

Analysis: For consistency purposes, I am creating this depth chart based on the assumption that the Pats will primarily play a 4-3 defense in 2013.  Obviously, they often switch between defenses, however, I’m projecting all players as they fit into a 4-3.  At defensive end, Jones and Ninkovich get the starting nod, just as they did in 2012.  The battle at defensive end starts with the second string guys.  Unlike some other positions where the second stringers don’t see the field much, back-up defensive lineman are becoming much more important in the NFL.  High-powered passing attacks are forcing defenses to rotate lineman to keep fresh bodies on the field that can get to the quarterback.  For the Pats, pressuring the quarterback is a top priority in 2013.  There will be a battle for the back-up spots at defensive end this off-season.  Jermaine Cunningham showed flashes of the player expected when he was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft.  A 4-game suspension derailed some of that success, however I think his performance last season warrants him making the team in 2013.  Justin Francis went from being an undrafted free agent signing to top back-up performer for the Pats in 2012 (10 tackles, 3 sacks).  Jake Bequette only played in 3 games last year, however he was awarded practice player of the month in October of last season and is expected to make a bigger impact in 2013.  A prospect to watch here is 7th round pick Michael Buchanon.  Buchanon has the athleticism to rush the passer in the NFL, however he needs to ass some bulk in order to hold up in the run game.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: 4 (4)

1) Vince Wilfork

1) Kyle Love

2) Tommy Kelly

2) Armond Armstead

Analysis: The surprising release of Brandon Deaderick a couple of days ago makes me think that the Patriots have something in one of their young defensive tackles that we don’t know about yet.  Vince Wilfork is considered one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL, and will remain a staple on the New England defensive line for years to come.  I believe that Kyle Love has earned a starting spot on this team.  Love has a Wilfork-like build (6’1″, 320 lbs) and is in the game on 1st and 2nd down to simple take up blockers.  On third down is where Tommy Kelly and Armond Armstead come in.  Kelly is a formidable pass rusher from the defensive tackle position (14.5 combined sacks between 2010-2011) and will hopefully fill a Gerard Warren-like role for the 2013 Pats.  Armstead comes from the CFL through USC.  Armstead had a heart attack as a senior at USC and was never cleared to play college football again.  Therefore, he had to go through the CFL to make his way to the NFL.  Armstead had 44 tackles and 6 sacks in the CFL last year.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER: 3 (3)

1) Jerod Mayo

1) Dont’a Hightower

2) Jamie Collins

Analysis: Jerod Mayo, one of the NFL’s best inside linebackers, make the transition to the outside in the Pats 4-3 defense in 2012, and seemed to not miss a beat.  Mayo amassed 147 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 interception.  Opposite Mayo, 2012 1st round pick Dont’a Hightower had a good first season in New England, ending with 60 tackles and 4 sacks.  I expect Hightower to become a more efficient pass rusher in 2013 and be most effective on first and second down.  Then there is 2013 2nd round pick Jamie Collins.  As mentioned in a previous post, I think Collins can contribute most on 3rd down as a rookie.  As a former safety, Collins has fluid hips as an outside linebacker and should be able to cover backs, tight ends, and slot receivers more effectively than the bigger Hightower (Collins: 6’3″, 250 lbs; Hightower: 6’2″, 270 lbs).  Niko Koutouvides and Jeff Tarpinian, former contributors for the Pats, will be competing primarily with inside linebackers for a roster spot as none of the aforementioned outside linebackers will be released.

INSIDE LINEBACKER: 3 (3)

1) Brandon Spikes

2) Dane Fletcher

3) Mike Rivera

Analysis: 2013 is a huge year for Brandon Spikes.  Spikes is in the 4th year of his rookie contract, and needs to prove he is worth the next contract he will get from either the Patriots of another team.  Spikes has already displayed great run-stopping ability in the NFL.  The problem is that Spikes is considered by some to be a 2-down linebacker.  2-down linebackers don’t usually get big-time money in the NFL.  Dane Fletcher was cementing himself as a good backup and possible future starter for the Patriots before he tore his ACL last season.  The Pats thought highly enough of Fletcher to re-sign him (he was a restricted free agent) this off-season.  Mike Rivera his filled in well for the Pats over the last couple of seasons and will be competing with rookie 7th round pick Steve Beauharnais for the 3rd spot on the depth chart.

CORNERBACK: 6 (7)

1) Aqib Talib

1) Alfonzo Dennard

2) Kyle Arrington [Nickel Corner]

2) Ras-I Dowling

3) Logan Ryan

3) Marquice Cole

Analysis: Unlike 2012, I’m projecting that the Pats only carry 6 cornerbacks in 2013 simply because they are overloaded at safety (and I believe a couple of their safeties could play on the inside at corner).  The Patriots got lucky this off-season when Alfonzo Dennard got sentenced to only 30 days in prison (starting in March 2014).  Dennard will look to build on a successful rookie campaign and start opposite of the $5 million man (Talib) in 2013.  Newly resigned Kyle Arrington played well enough over the past few seasons to earn 4-year $16 million deal this off-season.  Arrington will play, and is most effective in the nickel.  After than, the battle begins.  Logan Ryan is essentially a lock simply because of the position that he was drafted this season.  2013 is a make or break season for Ras-I Dowling.  If he is able to stay healthy and contribute, we may begin to realize some of his talent.  However, another injury may lead to Dowling’s release.  Marquice Cole gets the nod as the 6th corner because of his special teams prowess.  Rookie free-agent Brandon Jones could push for Cole’s roster spot if he proves that he can perform on special teams.

SAFETY: 5 (4)

1) Devin McCourty [FS]

1) Adrian Wilson [SS]

2) Tavon Wilson

2) Duron Harmon

3) Nate Ebner

Analysis: As I mentioned earlier, the Pats have an overload of safeties on their roster.  I project that 5 safeties will make the final 2013 roster, which is one more than last season.  I believe it is time that Devin McCourty makes the official switch to safety.  McCourty has performed well as a part-time safety over the last couple of seasons (although he was basically full-time last year), and it looks like the Pats think he may be a long-term solution at free safety.  I still think McCourty could be a good corner in the NFL, however I don’t get paid to make those decisions.  Adrian Wilson will get the start opposite of McCourty and will provide a physical presence that the Pats have lacked since the Rodney Harrison days.  At 6’3″, 230 lbs, Wilson has lost a step over his career, but McCourty’s responsibility will be to cover, Wilson will be asked to hit.  Behind those two, 2012 second round pick Tavon Wilson earns a roster spot after showing some promise in his rookie campaign (41 tackles, 4 interceptions).  Wilson also has the ability to drop down and play over the slot receiver, which will be useful as the Pats are only keeping 6 corners.  2013 3rd round pick Duron Harmon makes the roster over 2012 starter Steve Gregory.  Gregory was serviceable in 2012, although I think the Pats will decide to move in a new direction in 2013.  Special teams standout Nate Ebner gets the nod as the 3rd string safety due to his special teams ability (him and Slater are essentially the new Larry Izzos).

SPECIALISTS: 3 (3)

PK) Stephen Gostkowski

P) Zoltan Mesko

LS) Danny Aiken

Analysis: No change here from 2012.  The Patriots have brought in 2012 Ray Guy Award winner Ryan Allen to compete with Zoltan Mesko, however I expect Mesko to win that battle.  Some believe Allen may make the practice squad, which speaks to his talent as punters don’t often take up a spot on the 7-man practice squad.

PRACTICE SQUAD: 7 (7)

1)    Michael Buchanon, DE

2)    Matt Stankiewitch, C

3)    Chris McDonald, OG

4)    Brandon Jones, CB

5)    Steve Beauharnais, LB

6)    Jason Vega, DE

7)    TJ Moe, WR

Analysis: At this point in time, practice squad predictions are nearly impossible considering that training camp hasn’t even started yet.  However, in true Mattyoshow fashion, I’m giving it a shot.  Michael Buchanon is a raw talent out of Illinois that needs time in the weight room to bulk up.  I truly think Buchanon will push Jake Bequette for a roster spot at defensive end, but will wind up on the practice squad.  Matt Stankiewitch was a 25-game starter at Penn State at center, and certainly benefitted from Bill O’Brien’s tutelage during his last year at Penn State.  Stankiewitch is determined to learn to play guard in the NFL to improve his versatility and subsequently his odds of making the active roster.  Chris McDonald, younger brother of the aforementioned Nick McDonald, was a 39 game starter for the Michigan St. Spartans and will look to carve a position out at guard in the NFL.  Brandon Jones, yet another Rutgers product, will compete for an active roster spot this season, but will most likely end up on the practice squad.  Steve Beauharnais is an instinctual linebacker that ha a nose for the football.  Beauharnais doesn’t project as a 3-down linebacker, but a year in the weight room could lead to him competing for a roster spot in 2014.  Jason Vega is another CFL product signed this offseason.  Vega is a former Northeastern product (via Brockton) that amassed 66 tackles and 12 sacks in the CFL in 2012.  Missouri product TJ Moe draws comparisons to Welker simply based on his skill set and skin color.  Moe is bigger than Welker (6’0″, 200 lbs), stronger (26 reps at the combine), and maybe even more agile (Combine best 6.53 3-cone drill).  Moe could use a year of seasoning on the practice squad, however in 2013 he could look to replace Julian Edelman on the roster.

AFC East 2013 NFL Draft Grades

Now that I have completely reviewed what the Patriots did in the 2013 NFL Draft in my previous post, I will take a look at each team in the AFC East and review their drafts as well.  I will assign draft grades for each team so we can see how they all stack up.  Many believe (including myself) that you can not determine the success of a draft until after 3 years, however with a lull in football news, this is a way to pass the time.  Let’s do it…

BUFFALO BILLS

Best Pick: Robert Woods, WR USC

Worst Pick: EJ Manuel, QB Florida St.

Analysis: The Buffalo Bills made arguably the biggest splash in the 2013 NFL Draft by selecting EJ Manuel with the 16th overall pick, making him the 1st quarterback selected.  I think that Manuel was the worst pick for the Bills for a couple of reasons.  First, by selecting a quarterback with the 16th pick, you are making the statement that you expect this guy to contribute in the upcoming season.  Whether that means starter in Week 1 or a replacement at some point in the season, EJ needs to make a difference for the Bills to justify that 1st round pick spent on him.  I don’t believe Manuel has the consistency or the refinement in his game to produce for the Bills this season.  Also, the Bills signed Kevin Kolb to a 2 year, $13 million contract this offseason.  Are you really going to pay a guy $13 million to be a backup?  Second, Manuel’s consistency, or lack thereof, isn’t at the level it needs to be to become a productive NFL quarterback.  He has a great arm, good mobility, and elusiveness in the pocket, however his accuracy isn’t always there and he sometimes misjudges how much zip to put on the ball.  That is a recipe for disaster in the NFL.  On the flipside, I think the Bills did a great job of filling out their roster throughout the rest of their draft.  It was a battle for me in regards to the best pick between Robert Woods and Kiko Alonso.  Although undersized, Alonso has unbelievable instincts in both the run and pass game.  The Bills haven’t had a middle linebacker since losing Pauly P a couple of years back.  In the end, Woods got the nod as the best pick because of his raw talent opposite of Steve Johnson.  Much like Johnson, Woods can go deep, but isn’t afraid to go over the middle.  Marquis Goodwin will be a good 4th option at wide receiver.

Grade: B-

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Best Pick: Jamar Taylor, CB Boise State

Worst Pick: Will Davis, CB Utah State

Analysis: Jamar Taylor gets the nod as the best pick for the Dolphins for two reasons: 1) He was a great value pick in the 2nd round and 2) he fills a huge need for the Dolphins.  The Dolphins signed Brent Grimes this offseason, but after losing Vontae Davis and Sean Smith over the past year, they still had a major hole at corner opposite of Grimes.  Taylor is a fast, strong corner that excels in press coverage.  Sounds like a guy that would knock the Patriots’ little receivers off of their routes.  After all, every AFC East team is chasing the Pats.  Will Davis is considered the worst pick because I don’t see the fit in the Dolphins defense.  Davis is tall and not overly quick, which means I don’t see him being very successful in the nickel, which is where he is slotted in the Dolphins scheme right now.  I would be considered crazy if I didn’t address Dion Jordan, right?  Jordan is an athletic freak that is already being compared to Jason Taylor.  Time to pump the breaks Miami!  Jordan isn’t the strongest guy out there, but has much more fluidity in his hips than most 3-4 outside linebackers do.  I don’t think Jordan will be a 15 sack per year guy, but I think he gives the Dolphins a lot of versatility considering he can drop into coverage very easily.  A couple other picks that I really liked were Dallas Thomas, OT out of Tennessee and Jelani Jenkins, OLB from Florida.  The biggest knock on the Dolphins is that they didn’t draft a top-end left tackle.

Grade: B+

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Best Pick: Josh Boyce, WR TCU

Worst Pick: Jamie Collins, LB Southern Mississippi

Analysis: Here’s my bold prediction for the 2013 NFL season, Josh Boyce will be the Patriots’ 2nd most productive receiver, behind Danny Amendola.  Boyce suffered a foot injury supposedly just before the combine, and many believe that caused his stock to drop a bit.  Considering that Boyce ran a 4.38 40 (and put up a very impressive 22 reps on the bench) at the combine, after injuring his foot, should give you some indication that he can run pretty well.  Boyce is fast, strong, physical (5’11″, 205 lbs), and runs great routes.  Sounds like a round 4 steal to me.  My proclamation of Jamie Collins as the worst pick isn’t meant to be a commentary on the type of player that Collins is or will become.  Contrarily, I am critical of the Collins selection because the Pats’ first pick in the draft didn’t address a major need.  Yes, the Patriots could use to improve at rushing the quarterback, and they need some linebackers with better coverage abilities, but wide receiver and cornerback were much bigger areas of need than a rush/coverage linebacker.  Surprisingly, much criticized 3rd round pick Duron Harmon isn’t considered the worst pick because I believe in Belichick’s ability to find gems when he selects these “never heard of” players, and from everything I hear about Harmon’s character and instincts, I think he’ll fit in well with the Patriots.

Grade: B

NEW YORK JETS

Best Pick: Dee Milliner, CB Alabama

Worst Pick: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia

Analysis: I think we were all under the impression that once Mike Tannenbaum got canned, the Jets would cease the ridiculousness.  Well, looks like the Jets are keeping it going for a little longer!  Let’s start with what went right.  Dee Milliner is a stud.  There were concerns about his “5 surgeries” coming out of college.  I am willing to bet my entire bank account (which is exceptionally empty at the moment) that 50% of the players drafted in 2013 have had 5 or more surgeries throughout their career.  College football is evolving more and more into an NFL-like game, meaning players are having routine off-season surgeries nearly every year.  Milliner won’t be Revis (nobody may ever be Revis), but he will slide into the corner spot opposite of Cromartie and compliment Kyle Wilson in the slot.  Sheldon Richardson was another solid pick for the Jets.  His skill set fits very well into a 3-4 defensive end position and will provide some good pass-rush opposite of Muhammad Wilkerson.  Now, on to Geno Smith.  The only way this works is if Mark Sanchez is not a member of the New York Jets once training camp begins.  It will be a Tebow-like distraction all over again.  For every incomplete pass Mark Sanchez throws, there will be 50,000 Jets fans screaming for Geno Smith to come in.  Aside from the media firestorm, Smith doesn’t strike me as a franchise guy both talent wise and mentally.  He crumbled in big games throughout his senior season, and he reportedly hasn’t been the most professional guy throughout pre-draft workouts.  When you draft Geno Smith in the 2nd round, it is assumed that he will eventually take over as the starter, and I just don’t see it.  Aside from Smith, I thought that two huge areas of need for the Jets were at tight end and wide receiver.  The Jets weren’t bad because of their defense (their first 2 picks were defensive players), they were bad because of their offense.  They did little to improve their offense in this draft.

Grade: C

New England Patriots 2013 NFL Draft Review by: “The Better Looking Mel Kiper”

Since the 2013 NFL Draft concluded last Saturday, the New England Patriots have faced a mass of scrutiny regarding their draft philosophy, player selections, navigation of the draft board, etc.  Considering that I am in the middle of final exam week, and when I study I always have talk radio going in the background, I figured it’s about time that I weigh in and drop a little knowledge on the NTCF Faithful.  Let’s do it…

Draft Philosophy:

-I’m not a Belichick worshipper.  I don’t think that every move he makes is uncriticizable.  You can ask my usual draft day crew, I wasn’t high on Jermaine Cunningham.  I ripped them for the Tavon Wilson pick.  Seeing Terrence Wheatley go in the 2^nd round made my blood boil.  I blasted the Patriots for their draft day misses, particularly between 2006 – 2009.  With that said, the Patriots have a philosophy, and they stick to it.  For every Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson, there is a Matthew Slater and a Julian Edelman.  For every Ron Brace and Darius Butler, there is a Brandon Deaderick and a Marcus Cannon.  Whether or not you like what the Pats do, they are one of the better drafting teams in the NFL.

-This season, the biggest criticisms that I am hearing about the Patriots draft is that they traded out of the 1^st round, they selected Aaron Dobson, and they picked Duron Harmon way too high.  Let’s examine these moves a little more closely.

-Bill Belichick said in a press conference following the draft that, if the opportunity presented itself, the Patriots would have moved out of the first round last Wednesday.  That tells me one thing, they saw no scenario where a player they wanted was going to be available at 29.  They didn’t think they could find an impact player that filled a need at the spot they were supposed to pick in the 1^st round.  So, they went ahead a made what I consider to be the best trade in the draft.  The Patriots received a 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, and 7^th round pick from the Vikings in exchange for their 1^st round pick.  When you consider that the Cowboys exchanged 1^st round picks with the 49ers (moving from 18 – 31) and only received a 3^rd round pick in addition, it looks like the Pats made a great move.  The Patriots saw that they had needs to fill, didn’t see a player that they believed was worth 29^th pick value, and instead amassed 4 picks.  I have absolutely no problem with that move.

-Aaron Dobson makes sense.  He isn’t a burner.  He didn’t produce exceptional numbers at Marshall.  He has small hands.  I get it, he has flaws.  But, here’s what I know.  Dobson is a very bright kid that has the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level and the drive and will to get the job done.  This isn’t a Taylor Price burner that has a questionable mental makeup.  This isn’t a Chad Jackson burner that has a questionable mental makeup.  This isn’t a Brandon Tate burner that has a questionable mental makeup.  DO YOU SEE THE THEME?  They believe Dobson can learn their offense and produce.  I love the pick!

-So Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and all the other draft gurus had Duron Harmon as a 7^th round pick in the draft.  Who cares?  Logan Mankins was supposed to be a 3^rd rounder, Kiper said it was a reach when the Pats plucked him at pick #32 in the 2005 draft.  Several pro bowls later, Belichick won that one!  Chandler Jones was labeled as a “developmental prospect” by McShay and Kiper.  A season after being arguably the Pats’ most effective pass rusher, Belichick wins again!  Sebastian Vollmer wasn’t even invited to the NFL combine.  The Pats took him in the 2^nd round, got crushed by Kiper and company, and the dude winds up being a Pro Bowl tackle.  Belichick wins once again!  The moral of the story is to have faith in a guy that makes a living WINNING NFL football games, not guys that make a living talking about NFL football having never played.

-Now, let’s get into the picks…

Round 2 (#52 Overall) – Jamie Collins, OLB Southern Mississippi

Collins is an intriguing selection for the Pats, considering the talent and draft picks already invested at the linebacker position.  There is confusion surrounding Collins’ position.  Is he a 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB, nickel linebacker, or a primary rusher?  Here’s my thought.  The kid started his career at Southern Miss playing safety before moving to linebacker.  He has the feet and quickness to cover tight ends, running backs, and even slot receivers over short distances.  I think the Pats utilize him in a Jerod Mayo type roll, meaning he will primarily play the middle (Brandon Spikes’ contract is up after next season) but has the flexibility to shift outside and rush.  He will begin working mainly in the nickel package, to utilize his coverage skills, but with some seasoning could look to replace Brandon Spikes when he leaves in free agency.

Round 2 (#59 Overall) – Aaron Dobson, WR Marshall

As I mentioned previously, I love this pick.  Aaron Dobson has great size (6’3”, 210 pounds), decent speed (40 yard dash in the 4.4 range), and he is an exceptional route runner.  His production at Marshall wasn’t great, but thankfully you don’t succeed or fail in the NFL based on your college production.  Dobson will slide right in to the starting X receiver position on opening day.

Round 3 (#83 Overall) – Logan Ryan, CB Rutgers

The biggest benefit to Ryan’s game is his aggressiveness in the running game.  Logan has decent size (5’11”, 191 pounds) and good strength for his position (14 reps on the bench).  Ryan doesn’t have great speed (4.56 40 yard dash), but his speed is good enough that he can play slot receivers, and his strength will be a huge asset in knocking inside receivers off of their routes.  Ryan fits well into the Pats scheme at corner.  I expect Ryan to challenge Ras-I Dowling for the 4^th corner spot.

Round 3 (#91 Overall) – Duron Harmon, SS Rutgers

Devon McCourty speaks very highly about Duron Harmon, especially regarding his work ethic and competitiveness.  Harmon is ready to learn from McCourty for the 2^nd time in his life.  Harmon roomed with McCourty as a freshman at Rutgers, and has stated several times that Devin tried to teach him everything possible.  Only a couple of hours after Harmon was drafted by the Patriots, McCourty reach out to him and invited him up to Foxboro to start going through the playbook.  Harmon is supposedly a great locker room guy and has the versatility to play safety, but also drop down and cover slot receivers.  Harmon’s main competition is Stephen Gregory for a roster spot.

Round 4 (#102 Overall) – Josh Boyce, WR TCU

We can be sure about one thing regarding Josh Boyce, he is a physical freak.  At 5’11”, 206 pounds, Boyce ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and put up 22 reps on the bench, both top tier marks for wide receivers at the combine.  Boyce has the capability of playing on the outside and the inside, and could provide some great depth for the Patriots at receiver.  Boyce had great success at TCU with Andy Dalton tossing him the ball, however he struggled this past year due to inconsistent quarterback play and a foot injury.

Round 7 (#226 Overall) – Michael Buchanon, DE/OLB Illinois

Michael Buchanon was expected to pick up where Whitney Mercilius left off for Illinois this past season, however is never really worked out that way.  Heading into this past season, some had Buchanon projected as highly as a 1^st round pick.  An offseason bar fight, leading to an all-liquid diet and a loss of 20 pounds, and a not-so-amazing 2012 campaign all caused Buchanon to drop to the Pats in the 7^th round.  Buchanon needs to get stronger, but he has the talent to stick and could develop into a nice piece for the Pats.

Round 7 (#235 Overall) – Steve Beauharnais, LB Rutgers

There is no better way to describe Beauharnais that simply as an inside linebacker.  He has a nose for the ball.  Athletically, Beauharnais isn’t going to wow anyone.  He doesn’t have great size for the position.  But, Steve knows how to play middle linebacker and it shows on film.  Beauharnais needs to work on his technique and strength, but he is a willing and able special teamer, and could land a roster spot if he shows some improvement this offseason.

2013 New England Patriots Mock Draft

Now that I’ve completed my 1^st round mock (http://ntcf.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/2013-nfl-mock-draft-version-1-0-by-the-better-looking-mel-kiper/), it’s time to take a look at the 2013 NFL Draft from a New England Patriots perspective.  Unlike most years, the Pats are not loaded with 12 or 13 selections.  They have 5 picks (two 7^th round selections) in this draft, and need to hit on almost all of them.  I’ve already mocked the Patriots’ 1^st round pick in my entire 1^st round mock, so I’ll start there and then move through the rest of their selections.  Let’s do it…

1^st Round: #29 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson

For a team drafting this low in the 1^st round, it always seems that the Patriots have so many needs and so many directions that they could go in.  After the release of Brandon Lloyd, the Pats have a big need at wide receiver.  With Alfonzo Dennard’s unknown future, the Pats have a big need at cornerback.  Vollmer has been resigned, so their needs on the offensive line are diminished, but they could use some improved depth.  On the defensive line, they could use another rush guy on the outside (i.e. John Abraham) and another big body up the middle.  I’m projecting a wide receiver here for the Pats, but who the hell knows.  Their track record with selecting wideouts isn’t very good (i.e. Chad Jackson, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate).  DeAndre Hopkins is the best route runner and has the best hands of the remaining wideouts.  Sounds like a Pats guy to me…

2^nd Round: #59 – Tyrann Mathieu, CB LSU

Controversial isn’t necessarily the Patriot Way on draft day, however I think that Mathieu’s talent forces teams looking for cornerback help in the 2^nd and 3^rd round to consider selecting him.  Let’s not forget, the Patriots have taken on controversial players before (i.e. Randy Moss, Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth).  More recently, guys like Ryan Mallett and Alfonzo Dennard were draft picks that had “character” questions surrounding them.  From all reports, Mathieu has impressed NFL teams throughout the interview process, and impressed at the combine considering he was out of football for a year (4.50 40-yard dash, 4.14 shuttle, 34 inch vertical).  In my opinion, taking a risk on Mathieu at the end of the second round it a worthwhile endeavor for the Patriots.

3^rd Round: #91 – John Simon, DE/OLB Ohio State

John Simon came to Ohio State from high school as a 280-pound nose tackle, transitioned to a defensive end, and now is looking to impress scouts enough to be considered a 4-3 DE of a 3-4 OLB.  Simon has been dealing with shoulder issues this offseason, so he hasn’t been able to display his strength.  However, at his pro-day Simon displayed great athleticism for a guy his size (6’2”, 260 lbs), posting a 4.68 40-yard dash, 7.10 seconds in the three-cone drill, and a 34 inch vertical jump.  Simon isn’t necessarily ideal Patriot size for a 3-4 OLB (they usually like guys 6’4”+), however Simon benefitted from the tutelage of Mike Vrabel over the last couple of seasons (Vrabel is the defensive line coach for the Buckeyes) and has the makeup the Pats look for.

7^th Round: #226 (TB) – Joe Kruger, DE Utah

Joe Kruger, younger brother of former Ravens and now Cleveland Browns OLB Paul Kruger, isn’t as highly touted as his brother was coming out of school.  With that being said, Kruger has good size and can be viewed as a “potential” type of pick if he is able to fill out his frame and continue to develop strength.  Kruger’s combine measures were 6’6”, 270 lbs, and he posted a 4.83 40-yard dash, 34’ vertical jump, and 7.17 3-cone drill.  Kruger has good athleticism for his size, but I’m projecting him as a 3-4 defensive end for the Pats.

7^th Round: #235 – Jasper Collins, WR Mount Union

Collins was the only Division III invite to the 2013 East-West Shrine Game, and deservedly so.  Throughout the 2012 season, Collins amassed 92 catches for 1,694 yards and 22 touchdowns.  Collins is looking to be the next Mount Union wide receiver to produce in the NFL, following in the footsteps of Pierre Garcon and Cecil Shorts.  At 5’10”, 180 lbs, Collins’ size is similar to a slot receiver.  However, Collins also has good speed (4.47 40-yard dash), decent strength (12 reps on the bench), good explosiveness (34.5” vertical jump), and good quickness (6.85 3-cone drill).  This late in the draft, Collins is a great pick simply based on potential.

2013 NFL Mock Draft Version 1.0 by: “The Better Looking Mel Kiper”

After much angst, anticipation, and pressure from Scottie, I am happy to bring to you my 2013 NFL Mock Draft.  Every year I take on the mission of educating the NTCF faithful about college prospects, team needs, and inevitably what is going to happen in the NFL Draft.  If you take a look back at my previous predictions and who I thought would fit for particular teams, I’m not very far off.  With that said, sit back and enjoy the ride…

DISCLAIMER #1: For the majority of teams picking at or near the top of the 2011 NFL Draft, they are there for a reason, their inability to make good decisions on draft day.  Even though my man CV is always pushing for me to “dumb it down” to try and better predict what these teams will do, I can only make myself so stupid.  Here’s to you Kansas City, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Oakland, etc, you have officially taken the crown as the stupidest bunch in the league.  Good luck!

DISCLAIMER #2: Contrary to popular belief, I can not see more than 11 days into the future.  Therefore, if 12 days from now it becomes very obvious that something will occur in the draft that I did not account for, don’t hold it against me…I’m only partially superhuman.

DISCLAIMER #3: All I can ask of you is to sit back, get comfortable wherever you are, have an open mind, read through the whole mock, realize that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay obviously read this and let my knowledge influence their mocks, and let me know if you have some input.  Let’s do it…

1. Kansas City (2-14) (Needs: DE, OT, ILB, OG, WR)

Kansas City is starting fresh.  They have a new GM, new coach, and have parted ways with Matt Cassel and decided that they will move forward with Alex Smith.  Is Smith the long-term solution?  Probably not.  Does he make the Chiefs better than 2-14?  Probably.  The Chiefs have already worked out a deal with Dwayne Bowe and placed the franchise tag on OT Brandon Albert.  KC could look at an OT here (i.e. Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher), however I think they need a game changer.  Star Lotulelei was widely considered the best player in the 2013 NFL Draft, and then it was discovered that he had an abnormally low ejection fraction at the combine.  Lotulelei’s heart issues seem to be resolving and he performed wonderfully at Utah’s pro-day last week (measures: 6’2” 311 lbs, 40: 4.65, bench” 38 reps, vertical: 30”, 3-cone: 7.76 seconds).

SELECTION: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah

2. Jacksonville (2-14) (Needs: QB, DE, CB, OT, OLB)

Jacksonville just never gets anything right.  Blaine Gabbert was a disaster waiting to happen, and they pick him.  Justin Blackmon looks like a good young receiver, but without anyone to get him the ball his productivity is limited.  The Jags need help all over the field, and taking Geno Smith would be tempting for the new coaching regime in Jacksonville.  However, Smith is flying up draft boards more due to the lack of QB talent in the draft and not necessarily because of his talent.  Suring up the offensive line for the next 5-7 years should be the move for the Jags.

SELECTION: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M

3. Oakland (4-12) (Needs: DT, CB, LB, DE, OT)

Mark the Oakland Raiders down for a questionable selection based almost solely on combine numbers and physical appearance.  The Raiders have arguably more need than any team in the draft, but can obviously only grab one player here.  Word from Oakland is that Tommy Kelly’s time is coming to a close (and Seymour already departed) so the Raiders need help on their defensive line.  Sharrif Floyd is a physical specimen that is shooting up draft boards.  He produced in college, and he has the physical tools that the Raiders look for.

SELECTION: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida

4. Philadelphia (4-12) (Needs: DT, OT, CB, S, LB)

Word on the street is that the Eagles have some very serious interest in Geno Smith, as he would be a better fit for Chip Kelly’s offense than Nick Foles.  I personally just don’t see it.  I’m not sold on the fact that Kelly would so strategically make his way into the NFL (by essentially picking which team he wanted to coach, which GM he would work with, etc.) and then hitch his wagon to Geno Smith.  If there is a better quarterback to run Kelly’s offense than Mike Vick, I haven’t seen them.  I look for the Eagles to go through 2013 with Vick under center, draft a more suitable QB in 2014 (i.e. Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Football, Tajh Boyd, etc.), and move forward from there.  With the 4^th pick in the 2013 draft the Eagles address a huge need and find someone to cover an opposing receiver in their secondary.

SELECTION: Dee Millner, CB Alabama

5. Detroit (4-12) (Needs: DE, OT, S, CB, OLB)

The Detroit Lions are back to rebuilding what developed into a playoff team just 2 years ago.  They have their franchise quarterback in Stafford, franchise receiver in Megatron, and I really like what Mikel Leshoure did last season.  Aside from those players, the Detroit Lions are a mess.  LT Jeff Backus retired, Kyle Vanden Bosch was cut, and Cliff Avril is not a Seattle Seahawk.  The Lions get lucky here, as Eric Fisher (considered by some to be the best OT in the draft) has fallen to them at number 5.

SELECTION: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan

6. Cleveland (5-11) (Needs: QB, OLB, WR, CB, OG)

One year after selecting a nearly 30 year old quarterback in the first round, it seems as though the Browns are in complete rebuild mode once again.  Trent Richardson is a stud, Joe Haden is very good on the outside, and Joe Thomas is arguably the left tackle in the game.  Paul Kruger was a good addition for Cleveland this offseason, but I think he got paid a bit too much.  Cleveland could use a quarterback, but I doubt they make that decision two years in a row.  The Browns could also use a wide receiver, but I think that there is too much “bust” potential taking a receiver in this draft that high.  Even after the addition of Kruger, taking a stud pass rusher in the draft could immediately boost their defense to one of the best units in the league.  The Browns could move down here and stockpile picks, especially is a team wants to move up and grab Geno Smith, however if not I think that they select…

SELECTION: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB Oregon

7. Arizona (5-11) (Needs: QB, OT, OLB, RB, ILB)

New head coach Bruce Arians will do his best to identify the Cardinals quarterback of the future in the 2013 NFL Draft.  The problem is that many football “insiders” are saying that the Cardinals are not taking a quarterback with the 7^th overall pick in 2013.  That surprises me, considering the need, but I can understand Arians reluctance to hitch his career onto Geno Smith.  With that being said, the Cardinals can look to address other needs, either OT or OLB.  This draft is deep at both spots, but with Joeckel and Smith already off of the board, I think the physical specimen otherwise known as Ezekiel Ansah will be the selection.  Ansah has Jason Pierre-Paul-like athleticism, however his bust potential is huge considering he only became a starter in BYU’s 5^th game last season.

SELECTION: Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB BYU

8. Buffalo (6-10) (Needs: QB, WR, ILB, DE, S)

The Buffalo Bills’ biggest need by far is at quarterback.  Luckily for them, in my mock draft, Geno Smith has fallen right into their lap.  As we always see in the NFL Draft, as the time before the draft dwindles, quarterbacks shoot up the draft board because teams are always looking for the next new thing.  This year, it seems that Geno Smith is the guy flying up draft boards.  Smith was productive in college, had a decent showing at the combine, and has many of the attributed needed to be an NFL quarterback.  My questions with Smith surround his mental make-up and consistency.  Sadly, no one takes my opinion into account when these decisions are made.

SELECTION: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia

9. New York Jets (6-10) (Needs: QB, OT, OLB, S, RB)

The New York Jets are turning into the Oakland Raiders.  Constantly picking athletic freaks that aren’t necessarily turning into good football players (i.e. Quentin Coples, Stephen Hill, Vernon Gholston, etc.).  2011’s first round pick, Muhammad Wilkerson, is turning into a very good football player, but aside from him their defensive talent in dwindeling.  I think that the Jets will look long and hard at taking a game changing wide receiver to give Mark Sanchez some help in 2013, but I don’t believe that they can ignore their need at OLB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if they sign James Harrison).  Jarvis Jones is a bit undersized for a 3-4 defense (6’2”, 245 lbs) and his spinal issue presents some medical question marks.  However, the Jets cannot ignore his athleticism and pass rushing ability.

SELECTION: Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia

10. Tennessee (6-10) (Needs: S, OG, CB, C, WR)

The Tennessee Titans have a glaring need, and it’s at offensive guard.  They signed former Bills guard Andy Levitre to play on the left side, but they still have a need at right guard.  The Titans have addressed some other needs this offseason, by signing SS Bernard Pollard, RB Shonn Greene, and TE Delanie Walker.  The Titans could use some more help at wide receiver to combat the production of Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright, but that is a need that can be addressed later in the draft.  Thankfully for Tennessee fans, drafting a guard at 10 isn’t much of a reach considering the caliber of player that Chance Warmack is.  At 6’2”, 320 lbs Warmack is a physical specimen that brings a mean streak with him on the field…sounds like just what Chris Johnson was hoping for.

SELECTION: Chance Warmack, OG Alabama

11. San Diego (7-9) (Needs: OT, OG, CB, OLB, ILB)

Philip Rivers was not the guy that we were used to seeing during the 2012 season, and that can be largely blamed on the poor play of the Chargers offensive line.  The top priority for the Chargers in the 2013 NFL draft should be finding some protection for Rivers.  As it stands now, Justin Gaither is in line to be the starting left tackle for San Diego, and that just isn’t going to get the Chargers enough wins to be successful in 2013.  Lane Johnson wowed at the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine by posting what I believe is the fasted 40 time for an offensive lineman ever (4.72 seconds) at 6’6”, 303 lbs, and he followed that up by getting 28 reps on the bench.  Johnson was a former high school quarterback, college tight end, college defensive end, and current offensive tackle.  He has the athleticism to be very successful in the NFL.

SELECTION: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma

12. Miami (7-9) (Needs: OT, WR, CB, DT, TE)

It was a tough offseason for the Dolphins.  Free agency took a toll on Miami.  Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Sean Smith were just a few key pieces that left the Dolphins in 2013.  They were able to add Mike Wallace and Darnell Ellerby to the team, but there are still a lot of holes that need to be filled.  In my opinion, especially in a division where you need to play the Patriots twice per season, the Dolphins’ most glaring need is at cornerback.  Dee Millner is by far the best corner in this draft, but since he’s off of the board the Dolphins need to grab the next best corner available.  Xavier Rhodes reminds me a little of Sean Smith.  He is a bigger corner (6’1”, 210 lbs), possesses good speed (4.43 corner), great explosiveness (40.5 inch vertical), and ideal strength (14 reps on the bench).

SELECTION: Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.

13. Tampa Bay (7-9) (Needs: CB, TE, DE, DT, LB)

Tampa doesn’t have as many needs as would be anticipated for a team that finished 7-9 in 2012.  Their two most glaring weaknesses are al CB and TE.  Tyler Eifert would fit well with Tampa, I just know that teams are reluctant to grab a tight end that high in the draft.  The Bucs never filled the vacant corner spot made when the traded Talib to the Pats, so they can address that here.  Desmond Trufant has a great pedigree, performed well at the combine (4.38 40 yard dash, 16 bench reps, 3.85 second 20-yard shuffle), and is watching his draft stock rise over the past couple of weeks.

SELECTION: Desmond Trufant, CB Washington

14. Carolina (7-9) (Needs: DT, CB, S, RT, RG)

The Carolina Panthers surged at the end of the 2012 season, giving them some renewed optimism for 2013 and placing them in the middle of the first round in the 2013 NFL Draft.  The Panthers need to address the defensive tackle position, considering they were one of the worst run defense teams in the NFL.  Putting a couple of hogs up front will help free Luke Kuechly to roam and make plays.  Sheldon Richardson has prototypical size (6’3”, 294 lbs) and ideal athleticism for an NFL defensive tackle.  Richardson would fit well in Carolina’s scheme.

SELECTION: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri

15. New Orleans (7-9) (Needs: OLB, S, OT, CB, NT)

The New Orleans Saints had a disappointing 2012 season, but with Sean Payton back roaming the sidelines they should have a better 2013.  Now that Steve Spagnuolo has been hired as the Saints defensive coordinator, the Saints are switching over to a 3-4 defense.  The Saints do not have the proper personnel to run that defense currently, so it needs to be addressed in this draft.  The first order of business is finding someone to play the 3-4 OLB spot.  Barkevious Mingo has decent size for a 3-4 OLB (6’4”, 241 lbs), good speed (4.58 40 yard dash), and great explosiveness (37.0 inch vertical).  Mingo could use to add a little bit of size, but that usually isn’t much of an issue in the NFL.

SELECTION: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB LSU

16. St. Louis (7-8-1) (Needs: OT, S, WR, LB, OG)

Jeff Fisher led a much improved Rams team through the 2012 season.  Sam Bradford is morphing into a top NFL quarterback (despite Scottie’s feelings) and their defense is formidable.  The next order of business for the Rams should be getting Sam Bradford some reliable receiving targets (in addition to signing Jared Cook), especially now that Danny Amendola is a New England Patriot.  Tavon Austin is shooting up draft boards and is now widely considered as the best WR available in this draft.  Austin will fit perfectly in the slot because of his size (5’8”, 174 lbs), speed (4.34 seconds in 40), strength (14 reps on bench), and quickness (4.01 second 20 yard shuffle).

SELECTION: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia

17. Pittsburgh (8-8) (Needs: OLB, WR, S, OT, DE)

At this point in time, I have no idea what direction the Steelers will go in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Some experts believe it will be OLB, considering the loss of Harrison.  I think that the Steelers believe in Jason Worilds to play opposite of LaMarr Woodley.  Some believe it will be WR, however it is rare to see a team as disciplined as the Steelers spend such a high pick on a wide receiver.  If Desmond Trufant were still available, the Steelers would take a long like at infusing some youth into their secondary.  But he is gone so I think that the Steelers will look to take the best player available (which in this draft just so happens to be a wide receiver).

SELECTION: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee

18. Dallas (8-8) (Needs: OG, S, DE, DT, RT)

The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 defense under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.  They have some pieces already in place (i.e. DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, Sean Lee, Carr, Claiborne, etc.) so they look to be OK defensively.  However, offensively the Cowboys were not as good as their talent level indicated, and a lot of that blame can be placed on their offensive line.  I believe that Tyron Smith will be a good LT with a year or two more of seasoning.  Aside from him and Phil Costa at C, the ‘Boys need some offensive line help.

SELECTION: Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina

19. New York Giants (9-7) (Needs: OT, LB, CB, DE, OG)

The Giants seem to be content with Will Beatty at left tackle (they gave him a 5-year $38 million contract this offseason).  David Diehl is serviceable at RT.  The Giants could address their offensive line needs later in the draft.  In the 1^st round, the Giants need to address some needs that they have on the defensive side of the ball.  The Giants signed Dan Connor to play middle linebacker this offseason.  They could use some help at OLB, as well as corner.  Defensive end is a need because they lost Osi to the Falcons, but not one that needs to be addressed in the 1^st round.  Alec Ogletree (the former safety turned inside linebacker) is listed as in inside linebacker, however he has the athleticism and instincts to move to the outside.

SELECTION: Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia

20. Chicago (10-6) (Needs: OT, OG, LB, TE, DT)

The Chicago Bears seem to be turning over a new leaf and trying to infuse a little bit of youth into their team.  Seeing Brian Urlacher play for a different team just isn’t going to look right, however all good things come to an end.  If Lane Johnson happens to slip down to 20, I think that the Bears would consider taking him.  If not, the Bears have big needs at left guard, linebacker, and defensive tackle.  What better way to move on from a team legend than implanting a first round pick in his position.

SELECTION: Manti Te’o, ILB Notre Dame

21. Cincinnati (10-6) (Needs: RB, LB, S, OT, DE)

The Cincinnati Bengals were known as terrible draft day performers for so many years.  Over the past couple of years however, the Bengals have been making some better decisions (i.e. AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Jermaine Gresham).  Former 1^st round pick Andre Smith is a free agent, so the Bengals do have a need at offensive tackle, as well as running back (behind BJGE), linebacker, and safety.  This late in the draft, I don’t believe that the Bengals can find a difference maker at OT, and some other needs can be addressed later in the draft.  This is actually a decent draft in terms of safety depth, so 21 seems like the right spot for the 1^st one to come off of the board.  Also, pairing a rookie with one of my all-time favorite players in Taylor Mays would be awesome.

SELECTION: Kenny Vaccaro, FS Texas

22. St. Louis (from Washington [10-6]) (Needs: OT, S, WR, LB, OG)

With 2 picks in the 1^st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams have an opportunity to make some big choices for their franchise, that will hopefully put them over the .500 mark and into the playoffs in 2013.  The Rams filled a big need with Tavon Austin at #16.  The Rams have some serious needs on the offensive line, even with the addition of Jake Long at LT.  They could look to address a need at offensive guard here, however I believe that they could get a serviceable guard later in the draft.  The Rams projected starting safeties as of today are Rodney McLeod and Darian Stewart.  Exactly, I’ve never heard of them either.  As mentioned in the previous pick, the 2013 draft is pretty deep with safeties.  From the film that I’ve watched, I think Matt Elam will emerge as the best safety of the 2013 class.  The guy can hit, has a knack for being in the right place at the right time, and is an absolute ball hawk.  The Rams grade for round 1 = A+.

SELECTION: Matt Elam, FS Florida

23. Minnesota (10-6) (Needs: WR, LB, DT, OG, S)

The Minnesota Vikings made the playoffs in 2012 based on Percy Harvin’s early season production and Adrian Peterson’s MVP season.  In 2013, Harvin is no longer a Viking and Peterson is caught searching for who is going to shoulder the offensive load with him.  The Vikings went out and signed Greg Jennings, but they are still pretty thin at WR.  The Vikings also have needs at LB, DT, and S.  Based on where the Vikings fall, I think taking the best player available is the best strategy here.

SELECTION: Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee

24.Indianapolis (11-5) (Needs: OT, CB, NT, OLB, OG)

The Indianapolis Colts moved from the worst team in the NFL in 2011, to a playoff team in 2012.  Much of that was due to the play of Andrew Luck, but Chuck Pagano and the Colts defense deserve some credit for that as well.  In this draft the Colts will need to build on their success in last year’s draft to keep the momentum rolling.  The Colts addressed some of their offensive line needs via free agency by signing Gosder Cherilus to play RT and Donald Thomas to play LG.  The also addressed some defensive needs by signing NT Aubrayo Franklin, 3-4 DE Ricky Jean-Franciose. And SS Laron Landry.  The Colts could use to address a future need/buy some insurance following the loss of Dwight Freeney.  Robert Mathis is aging and Jerry Hughes hasn’t proven that he can produce in the NFL yet.

SELECTION: Tank Carradine, DE/OLB Florida St.

25. Minnesota (from Seattle [11-5]) (Needs: WR, LB, DT, OG, S)

Minnesota picked up a second 1^st round pick from the Seahawks in the Percy Harvin trade.  Just two picks ago, Minnesota picked up Cordarrelle Patterson to solidify their second wide receiver spot.  Now, Minnesota can address an area of concern on the defensive side of the ball.  Letroy Guion is in line to start at defensive tackle alongside (aging) Kevin Williams.  The Vikings could use an upgrade at this position.

SELECTION: Johnathan Hankins, DT Ohio St.

26. Green Bay (11-5) (Needs: C, RB, WR, OLB, OT)

The Green Bay Packers are a very talented football team, and have few desperate needs heading into the 2013 NFL Draft.  Losing Greg Jennings hurts, but the emergence of Randall Cobb and James Jones softens that blow.  They could also use an OT for depth purposes considering it seems as though one of their current OTs is hurt every single game.  In my opinion, the Packers most glaring weakness is at running back (however they have faired very well without a great running back over the best several seasons).  The Packers do a great job of picking athletic guys and morphing them into football players.  Luckily for them, Eddie Lacy is as good of a football player that you could ask for at pick #26.

SELECTION: Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama

27. Houston (12-4) (Needs: WR, ILB, OT, OG, S)

The Houston Texans finally developed into the type of team that people were expecting to see over the past few seasons.  JJ Watt has emerged as one of the best defensive players in the league.  Houston has some other really good pieces on both sides of the ball (Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, Kareem Jackson, obviously Arian Foster and Andre Johnson).  Houston fans have been calling for the Texans to draft a wide receiver to play opposite of Andre Johnson for years, and 2013 may finally be the year that they go in that direction.

SELECTION: Robert Woods, WR USC

28. Denver (13-3) (Needs: DT, ILB, S, RB, OT)

Damn those Broncos!  Scooping up Welker from the Pats.  I think that Danny Amendola will be a great addition to the Pats, however it’s tough to see a guy like Welker go.  Anyways, the Broncos needs are primarily on the defensive side of the ball.  They were able to pick up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this offseason, which fills a void at cornerback.  They still present needs at inside linebacker (after losing DJ Williams to the Bears) and at defensive tackle.  As is the theme, the Broncos should look to take the best available player that fits their needs this late in the draft.

SELECTION: Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina

29. New England (12-4) (Needs: WR, CB, OT, DT, DE)

For a team drafting this low in the 1^st round, it always seems that the Patriots have so many needs and so many directions that they could go in.  After the release of Brandon Lloyd, the Pats have a big need at wide receiver.  With Alfonzo Dennard’s unknown future, the Pats have a big need at cornerback.  Vollmer has been resigned, so their needs on the offensive line are diminished, but they could use some improved depth.  On the defensive line, they could use another rush guy on the outside (i.e. John Abraham) and another big body up the middle.  I’m projecting a wide receiver here for the Pats, but who the hell knows.  Their track record with selecting wideouts isn’t very good (i.e. Chad Jackson, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate).  DeAndre Hopkins is the best route runner and has the best hands of the remaining wideouts.  Sounds like a Pats guy to me…

SELECTION: DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson

30. Atlanta (13-3) (Needs: DE, LB, DT, OG, C)

First order of business for the Atlanta Falcons, bring back Matt Hansen.  Second order of business, find a cornerback, as I don’t think Robert McClain is going to get the job done.  Desmond Trufant is long off of the board, so the Falcons need to look in a different direction.

SELECTION: Johnthan Banks, CB Mississippi St.

31. San Francisco (11-4-1) (Needs: NT, DE, CB, OG, K)

The San Francisco 49ers were arguably the NFL’s most talented team in 2012, and have addressed some needs in free agency to bring in some more talent.  Guys by the names of Anquan Boldin, Glenn Dorsey, and Criag Dahl will try and help propel San Francisco to yet another super Bowl (and hopeful victory) in 2013.  However, the 49ers did lose some key pieces to free agency (i.e. Delanie Walker, Ricky Jean-Francois, Isaac Sopoaga, Dashon Goldson, etc.) and those positions need to be addressed in the draft.  At pick 31, the top tier of talent has been picked through, but there are certainly immediate starters left.  I look for the 49ers to look to upgrade their offensive line, while many experts believe Tyler Eifert may be the pick to give San Fran another offensive weapon.  After running a 4.9 40-yard dash at Alabama’s pro day (and banging out 30 reps on the bench at the combine), nose tackle Jesse Williams is making a case to be a 1^st round pick.

SELECTION: Jesse Williams, NT Alabama

32. Baltimore (10-6) (Needs: ILB, S, C, OLB, WR)

Nearly 2 months after winning the Super Bowl the Baltimore Ravens look like a completely different team.  They’ve identified Joe Flacco as their franchise guy, lost seasoned veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  The Ravens were hit hard by free agency, losing guys like Reed, Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe, and trading Anquan Boldin.  With that said, the Ravens made some good additions as well (Marcus Spears, Chris Canty, Elvis Dumervil, Michael Huff).  There are two positions that Baltimore has a big time need at, ILB and WR.  With Alec Ogletree and Manti Te’o off of the board, the Ravens could look to address their needs at wideout.

SELECTION: Keenan Allen, WR California

NIT 2013 Quarterfinal – Baylor 79 – Providence 68

-Well, it was a matter of time before the surprisingly successful 2012-2013 Providence College Friars were no longer able to make a magical comeback and keep playing basketball.  The Baylor Bears, led by Pierre Jackson, were stoic down the stretch, unfazed by the Friars continuous attempts at a comeback, and making all of the plays necessary to move onto the 2013 NIT Semifinals as Madison Square Garden.

-Coach Cooley deserves an exceptional amount of credit for what he was able to do with this Friars team.  He had to work with more player combinations than possibly any other team in the country.  The Friars brought 6 scholarship players to the Puerto Rice Tip-Off at the start of the season.  Then, Cooley had to work Vincent Council, Kris Dunn, and Sidiki Johnson back into the lineup.  Then, the Friars lost Johnson and had to adapt again.  Then, they dealt with an injury to Bryce Cotton, a few stomach bugs for Kris Dunn, some disciplinary issues with Council, and a countless amount of other variables that led to Cooley receiving this praise from me.  Stand up Coach, you deserve a ton of recognition and appreciation!

-Pierre Jackson is ruthless.  He is the example of what I wish Vincent Council developed into.  Never fazed, always under control, and always making the best decision.

-With that being said, Council had a hell of a game (21 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists).  Vince, you will be remembered and I will miss your consistency through the years.  Your stats force you to be considered one of the greatest Friars of all time.  Had it not been for your injured hamstring to start the season, you’d be getting much more national respect.  You should get a shot in the league…

-Classic Henton: 0 points, 8 rebounds, 0-5 from the field, 0-2 from the free throw line, 4 personal fouls, and 2 shots that were blocked

-Classic Dunn: 4 points (2-4 from the field), 2 rebounds, 6 assists

-LaDontae Henton needs to become more consistent, or he’ll be coming off of the bench in the 2013-2014 season.

-Kadeem Batts finished the season just as he started it, putting up numbers and controlling the paint.  Batts amassed 20 points (9-17 shooting), grabbed 8 boards, and had 2 assists.  Kadeem Batts turned into a better player than I ever imagined he would become.  Cooley’s staff needs to be recognized for his development, but Kadeem deserves a lot of that credit too.  If Batts gets better heading into the 2013-2014 season, he will be drafted.

-Bryce Cotton led the Friars with 23 points, however he went dead cold in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd half (when they needed him the most).  As the NTCF faithful may know, my affinity for Bryce Cotton has decreased as of late and I’ve begun to criticize him for some selfish play and poor decision making.  I hope that Bryce continues to improve, but I think that the Friars will have more talented options next season.  Cotton will most likely get drafted (thanks Q), but Batts will be a better pro.

-Josh Fortune needs to improve defensively, offensively, with decision making, and his overall basketball IQ or his playing time will quickly diminish with guys like Brandon Austin and Ricky Ledo competing for playing time.

-You have to commend the Baylor Bears.  They played a hell of a game.  Jefferson was a beast down low and Jackson was a true conductor on the floor.

-However, I can’t complain.  The Friars were able to play 3 more games than anticipated and have some momentum to build on this offseason.

-Stay tuned to NTCF for my 2012-2013 season review and 2013-2014 season preview post.

NIT 2013 Round 2: Providence 77 – Robert Morris 68

-I need to start by saying that what I watched on Monday night was one of the most poorly officiated games that I have ever seen. And it wasn’t that all bad calls were against Providence.  Bad calls were going in both directions.  I’m not sure which conference the officiating crew was from, but they should be fired.

-After the completion of the game last night, Ed Cooley grabbed the mic and addressed the crowd.  Man, I love Cooley.  Here was Cooley’s statement in a post-game interview about his address, “I thought about taking that microphone all day. I wanted to thank our crowd. We have had some really good crowds. I’d like to see every seat filled, but part of building your program is building your fan base back up.  I think this is a really tough place to play when the energy is like that. I think the last three and a half minutes of this game – that was actually fun. That was a lot of fun to hear the building shake like that. The players all feed off of that. And you know what? A team will crumble under those circumstances, and I thought that happened today.”

-From what Scottie told me (because I wasn’t at the game), Cooley said that if the crowd is loud every game, that will play a huge part in PC winning a National Championship.  After that statement, the crowd and the Friars went nuts!  Love the vision that Cooley has, he is developing a championship attitude with this team, and bringing in the talent to compete on a national level.

-Before this game, Cooley went on record saying that Kris Dunn had his best week of practice.  Sadly for the Friars, Dunn was battling a stomach bug on Monday and he looked somewhat sluggish.  With a healthy Dunn, his defensive energy would have gone a long way in limiting Robert Morris’ offensive effectiveness.  However, Dunn still found ways to produce (6 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists).

-LaDontae Henton played arguably his best game of the season, utilizing consistent mismatches to his advantage.  Henton tallied up 21 points and 6 rebounds on 6-7 shooting and 8-8 from the free throw line.

-Council’s offense was nowhere to be found, but 12 points and 10 assists were enough to get the Friars through to the next round.

-Lee Goldsbrough stepped up on a night where the Friars’ bigs were battling foul trouble.  Lee logged 21 minutes, grabbed 9 rebounds and 6 points.  Lee made a huge bucket as the game was winding down on a nice dish from Council.  Goldsbrough has inproved dramatically this season and I’m interested to see how much time he will get next season.

-Kadeem needs to be a more consistent focal point of the Friars offense.  Their tendency to feed Kadeem the ball is scarce, and when they do get him the ball down low it is often off of the block and he gets double teamed.  Every time Cotton gets the ball outside, Kadeem is in a great spot underneath (because offensive attention has switched to Cotton).  Cotton needs to become more alert and get Batts the ball more often.

-Kris Dunn makes some of the prettiest passes that I’ve seen in a long time.  On a fast break, Dunn threw a no-look bounce pass to Batts (who fumbled the pass) through two defenders.  That pass was awesome!

-Next up for the Friars are the Baylor Bears.  The Bears’ offense has been on fire thus far in the NIT, scoring 112 points in their 1st game (vs. Long Beach St.) and 89 points in their 2nd game (vs. Arizona St.).  The Bears average 74 points per game for the season (31st in the NCAA).  Their best player is senior point guard Pierre Jackson who averages 19 points per game on the season (and had 26 points and 16 assists against Arizona St.).  This should be an offensive showdown!

-NEXT GAME: Wednesday, March 27th @ Baylor, 9pm (ESPN2)

NIT 2013 Round 1: Providence 75 – Charlotte 66

-Kris Dunn, stand up!  Thank you.  Thank you for making the right play at the right time.  Thank you for hustling every single minute that you are on the floor.  Thank you for making a clutch steal when we needed it the most.  Thank you for attacking when you should attack.  Thank you for knowing when to slow it down and start the offense over.  Damn man, you’re getting better by the day!

-Classic Dunn stat line: 14 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals

-And it doesn’t hurt that Coach Cooley said Dunn played his best game in a Friar uniform.

-Bryce Cotton finally remembered that he can shoot and made a few three pointers.  Cotton still disrupts offensive flow because of his constant desire to shoot (as all shooters have) and his inability to react quickly and find the open man.  With that being said, Bryce scored 25 points against Charlotte and shot 4/8 from three.  If he keeps that up over the next few games, PC will be a tough out.

-For the second consecutive game Kadeem Batts was pounded on the block and couldn’t get into any sort of offensive rhythm.  Batts only managed to score 5 points and grab 5 boards.  Granted, the Friars didn’t need him much against Charlotte and he was battling foul trouble for much of the game.  With that being said, in order to make it deep into this tournament the Friars need the Kadeem Batts that we have become accustomed to seeing this season (i.e. the 15 points, 8 boards Kadeem).

-Vincent Council looked like a senior point guard that has never reached postseason play before and didn’t want to get bounced in the 1st round.  Council played one of his better games of the season, showing a little more offensive aggression than he has much of this season.  Council pulled his best Kris Dunn impression by filling up the stat line: 16 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks.

-The most important stat of the game: Providence turnovers = 5

-Ted Bancroft makes more meaningful plays in his 3 minutes of play than LaDontae Henton does in his 30 minutes of play.  Cooley knows what to expect when he puts Bancroft in the game (effort, heart, guts, and defense).  Last night, when Bancroft sailed over the top of Charlotte’s big man to grab a board and draw a foul, Cooley was 15 feet onto the court yelling in support of Bancroft.  Gotta love the walk on leaving it on the floor.  Gotta love Cooley’s love for the walk on.

-NEXT GAME: Monday, March 25th vs. Robert Morris, 7pm

Big East Tournament Round 2: Cincinnati 61 – Providence 44

-That was a disappointing end to what turned out to be a surprisingly successful season (although the season really isn’t over).  Providence played very lackadaisically, lacked enthusiasm, and simply didn’t show up for their first Big East Tournament game against Cincinnati.

-Although I love what the new Big East is all about and why it was formed, it pains me to see the current Big East break up.  No matter the status of the Friars, every season all PC fans look at the schedule and circle the games against Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, etc.  I don’t like the fact that we won’t be facing those top 10 teams every couple of weeks…but the new Big East will be there soon.

-The story of the Cincinnati game: Inability to convert.

-1/16 from 3 (6%)

-18/64 from the floor (28%)

-You aren’t going to win any games in the Big East, or the A-10 for that matter, shooting that poorly from the floor.  Kadeem Batts was getting pounded on the block (and no fouls were being called), Bryce Cotton couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat (for the 6th consecutive game), LaDontae Henton looked over matched all game, and Josh Fortune was being his classic Charlie Burch-like self.

-Bryce Cotton kills the flow of the Friars offense, and if he doesn’t fix it they won’t make it far in the NIT.

-Kadeem Batts needs to demand the ball.  Batts constantly fights for position on the low post, but guys like Cotton on the outside aren’t feeding the big man and rewarding him for his hard work.  The only guys that constantly feed Batts are Council and Dunn.  That needs to change.

-Classic Dunn: 4 points, 7 boards, 3 assists.

-I’m not making excuses, but that was one of the most poorly officiated games I’ve seen in a long time.  I don’t watch a ton of college basketball outside of the Big East, but from what I have watched, the level of officiating in the Big East is inferior in comparison to other power conferences.  If the goal is to create the best basketball conference in the country, the new Big East needs to step it up.

-Cincinnati’s jerseys were the ugliest jerseys that I had ever seen.  Then, I turned on the Notre Dame game…

-Providence has drawn a #4 seed in the 2013 NIT.  They will be matched up against Charlotte in the first round.  The other teams in Providence’s part of the bracket are: 1) Kentucky 2) Baylor 3) Arizona St. 6) Detroit 7) Long Beach St. 8) Robert Morris.  If Providence is able to get passed Charlotte in the first round, they will be matched up against the defending NCAA Champs in Kentucky.

-NEXT GAME: Wednesday, March 20th vs. Charlotte, 7:15pm (ESPN3)

 

Big East Game 18: Connecticut 63 – Providence 59

-Exceptionally tough way to end the 2013 Big East season.  After being on such an amazing run, Providence looked like they were so excited about the start of the Big East Tournament, that they forgot about playing UConn on Saturday.

-The Friars inability to put the Huskies away, after several opportunities, eventually led to an overtime loss against a depleted Connecticut squad.

-The Friars committed 14 turnovers in the game.  14 isn’t a terribly high number for this PC squad, but it seemed like every turnover PC made was very untimely and led to UConn buckets.  Conversely, PC only forced 8 UConn turnovers even with a banged up Napier playing 44 of 45 potential minutes.

-Kadeem Batts didn’t get enough touches in the low post.  Batts shot a poor 5-13 from the field, but his role in the offense led him to shoot many mid-range jumpers rather than taking the ball strong to the rack.  Batts still put up 14 points and 12 boards, but he could have had a much bigger game, considering UConn’s front line was depleted.

-Bryce Cotton was 1-8 from 3 point land, and 4-13 from the floor.  Cotton has been off over the last several games.  The offense is being forced to Cotton, and he isn’t making the best basketball decisions.  I’ll give you an example: In the middle of the second half, Cooley ran a play for Cotton who caught the ball at the 3 point line near the left hash mark.  Cotton’s man was draped all over him, but Batts had secured good position down low against a smaller defender.  Instead of finding Batts, Cotton used the dribble to try and get open, and then decided to kick the ball back out to Council.  Maybe I’m looking into this too much, but is Bryce Cotton becoming a selfish basketball player?

-Kris Dunn will be the best point guard in the country if he stays at Providence for 4 years.  Here is your usual Dunn stat line: 11 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists, 2 steals.

-To echo what Scottie said to me on Saturday, I hate Ryan Boatright.  Not sure why, he just rubs me the wrong way.

-With PC’s loss to UConn, their bubble is essentially popped.  If Providence has any hope of making it to the NCAA tournament, they need to win at least 2, maybe 3 games in the Big East Tournament.  Providence earned an 8 seed in the BET, but that is pretty much a nightmare situation.  PC will face the 9 seed Cincinnati on Wednesday.  A Cincinnati team that is looking to make a run in the BET to secure an NCAA Tournament spot.  If they happen to win that game, they’ll find themselves facing a potential #1 seed in the NCAA tournament in Georgetown. Awesome…

-NEXT GAME: Wednesday, March 13th vs. Cincinnati, 12pm (ESPN)